{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eba63176-1643-4205-8902-af2435218e58", "symbol": "PESI", "name": "Perma-Fix Environmental Svcs Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.483, "architecture_energy": 87.771, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.265, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.33, "rotation_up": 85.82, "upward_expansion": 97.77, "deceleration": 39.06, "rotation_down": 8.16, "downward_expansion": 19.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.902, 15.357273, 13.487857, 13.094796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.08, "trend_reference": 13.048667, "distance_from_trend": 0.385582, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.054808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.635488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.734671, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.182472, "excess_performance": -0.004981, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.385582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024697, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.635488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.623913, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.247347, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.491062, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.182472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.699378, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1970626, "relative_activity": 1.281125, "balance": 2.699378, "dry_up": 1.773452, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115434, "annualized_volatility": 0.637739, "from_high_reference": -0.017391, "from_low_reference": 1.254364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.048667, "fair_value_reference": 11.054808, "structural_low": 8.58, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.134688, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.092568, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.226212, "worst_return": -0.086831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.070912, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.102246, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.597846, "worst_return": -0.214447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.057143, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.759425, "worst_return": -0.456734, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 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"red", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.19779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076487, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127417, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.38607, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.029218, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.189498, "active": false }, { 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"2026-07-03", "close": 13.51, "volume": 2495090, "typical_volume": 1092870.7, "trend": 12.536667, "fair_value": 10.848846, "relative_strength": -4.038533, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.339251, "energy": 18.065008, "activity_lines": [ 12.078, 11.214091, 11.369524, 11.897333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.87, "volume": 1257349, "typical_volume": 1128409.35, "trend": 12.529333, "fair_value": 10.875256, "relative_strength": -3.090355, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.8021, "energy": 34.121041, "activity_lines": [ 12.875667, 11.745818, 11.573476, 11.983355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.46, "volume": 5036010, "typical_volume": 1335036.9, "trend": 12.670333, "fair_value": 10.927885, "relative_strength": 26.700032, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.783176, "energy": 63.602377, "activity_lines": [ 14.587333, 12.906455, 12.11719, 12.301462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.98, "volume": 1995765, "typical_volume": 1411349.55, "trend": 12.774, "fair_value": 10.972821, "relative_strength": 17.669706, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.676253, "energy": 65.679877, "activity_lines": [ 15.374667, 13.680545, 12.501762, 12.514989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.6, "volume": 1909297, "typical_volume": 1475397.7, "trend": 12.919, "fair_value": 11.01641, "relative_strength": 20.992419, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.576391, "energy": 71.579189, "activity_lines": [ 16.036667, 14.453909, 12.932571, 12.761828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.08, "volume": 1970626, "typical_volume": 1538200.05, "trend": 13.048667, "fair_value": 11.054808, "relative_strength": 24.734671, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.48309, "energy": 87.771334, "activity_lines": [ 16.902, 15.357273, 13.487857, 13.094796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }