{ "ticker": { "uuid": "eba9f6ac-dacd-4a7b-97d2-afa585807599", "symbol": "MBSD", "name": "FLEXSHARES TRUST DISCIPLINED DURATION MBS INDEX", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 78.824, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.438, "architecture_energy": 57.31, "architecture_maturity": 4.422, "architecture_confidence": 86.199, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.46, "rotation_up": 11.55, "upward_expansion": 12.46, "deceleration": 38.01, "rotation_down": 66.48, "downward_expansion": 88.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.380526, 20.430103, 20.471659, 20.499336 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 20.425, "trend_reference": 20.533399, "distance_from_trend": -0.005279, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.429706, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.046104, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008264, "excess_performance": -0.133889, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000487, "read": "Rising" 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"invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.002678, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": -0.009945, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.038587, "worst_return": -0.035358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004703, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.007626, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.025973, "worst_return": -0.046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011368, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.05374, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.030853, "worst_return": -0.067202, "sufficient": false }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 20.484137, 20.498911, 20.515701, 20.535143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.331665, "volume": 73393, "typical_volume": 54921.6, "trend": 20.542955, "fair_value": 19.399225, "relative_strength": -7.959921, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.46925, "energy": 54.79612, "activity_lines": [ 20.42373, 20.469923, 20.497203, 20.521187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.317206, "volume": 25439, "typical_volume": 53871.6, "trend": 20.53794, "fair_value": 19.413891, "relative_strength": -8.71454, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.368832, "energy": 64.73606, "activity_lines": [ 20.373711, 20.439068, 20.47883, 20.506623 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.425, "volume": 40234, "typical_volume": 50802.25, "trend": 20.533399, "fair_value": 19.429706, "relative_strength": -11.046104, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.438218, "energy": 57.310165, "activity_lines": [ 20.380526, 20.430103, 20.471659, 20.499336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }