{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebb84af1-ffa6-4567-ba33-2871266c6508", "symbol": "LYKALABS", "name": "Lyka Labs Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.811, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.071, "architecture_energy": 19.46, "architecture_maturity": 30.308, "architecture_confidence": 71.288, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.72, "rotation_up": 25.79, "upward_expansion": 56.09, "deceleration": 87.9, "rotation_down": 36.08, "downward_expansion": 22.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.052665, 66.789089, 65.273427, 63.782171 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 66.739998, "trend_reference": 63.711333, "distance_from_trend": 0.047537, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 107.820833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.38101, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.881723, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.05521, "excess_performance": -0.0115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068035, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.38101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032128, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12157, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417595, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101159, "relative_activity": 0.629472, "balance": 0.417595, "dry_up": 0.606205, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101242, "annualized_volatility": 0.554694, "from_high_reference": -0.370615, "from_low_reference": 0.513379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.711333, "fair_value_reference": 107.820833, "structural_low": 44.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.021406, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.022838, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.198113, "worst_return": -0.206798, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.113936, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.134636, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.152644, "worst_return": -0.23127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.248149, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.251279, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.174143, "worst_return": -0.324472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.246862, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.354953, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.301624, "worst_return": -0.494526, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146294, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114827, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.200268, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.205698, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07418, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.080784, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118064, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097609, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144515, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.388955, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.198113, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148698, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 116.699997, "volume": 476332, "typical_volume": 833356.2, "trend": 111.106667, "fair_value": 99.304167, "relative_strength": -9.951717, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"energy": 59.737255, "activity_lines": [ 70.319332, 67.729817, 64.028618, 63.737354 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 70.129997, "volume": 32984, "typical_volume": 205422.3, "trend": 65.215999, "fair_value": 108.772307, "relative_strength": -7.55436, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.20812, "energy": 55.47321, "activity_lines": [ 70.409998, 68.488544, 64.867142, 64.042924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.529999, "volume": 97133, "typical_volume": 202652.8, "trend": 64.807666, "fair_value": 108.460961, "relative_strength": -14.665874, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.481657, "energy": 21.522047, "activity_lines": [ 67.931999, 67.779089, 64.944808, 63.869634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 60.799999, "volume": 158404, "typical_volume": 186142.1, "trend": 64.087999, "fair_value": 108.125384, "relative_strength": -18.096152, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.465813, "energy": 8.816265, "activity_lines": [ 65.200665, 66.738544, 64.846523, 63.611074 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.739998, "volume": 101159, "typical_volume": 160704.65, "trend": 63.711333, "fair_value": 107.820833, "relative_strength": -9.881723, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.071232, "energy": 19.460477, "activity_lines": [ 65.052665, 66.789089, 65.273427, 63.782171 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }