{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebb8e25d-533d-4968-af9f-7f3a46b4b941", "symbol": "MUSRI", "name": "BNP Paribas Easy MSCI EMU SRI PAB UCITS ETF Capitalisation", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.052, "architecture_energy": 69.68, "architecture_maturity": 41.583, "architecture_confidence": 93.149, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 60.76, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 59.87, "rotation_down": 26.33, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.132073, 19.029058, 18.571927, 18.201687 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.4559, "trend_reference": 17.814437, "distance_from_trend": 0.092142, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.270863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274054, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.590828, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120602, "excess_performance": 0.067291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092142, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274054, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055908, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019906, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.948706, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49778, "relative_activity": 1.188072, "balance": 4.948706, "dry_up": 1.959018, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019921, "annualized_volatility": 0.171616, "from_high_reference": -0.005668, "from_low_reference": 0.243276 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.814437, "fair_value_reference": 15.270863, "structural_low": 15.8053, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.006766, "positive_rate": 0.540541, "directional_follow_through": 0.540541, "median_excess_return": 0.002346, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.080644, "worst_return": -0.097456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013034, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004074, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.059827, "worst_return": -0.059804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.056285, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.003715, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.119536, "worst_return": -0.168042, "sufficient": true }, { 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18.89604, 18.493791, 17.963186, 17.733029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.8834, "volume": 55168, "typical_volume": 39501.35, "trend": 17.52202, "fair_value": 15.112344, "relative_strength": 7.833354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.79131, "energy": 87.145009, "activity_lines": [ 18.9474, 18.628036, 18.081461, 17.825962 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.870899, "volume": 26702, "typical_volume": 39190.95, "trend": 17.592757, "fair_value": 15.150439, "relative_strength": 7.55605, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.937885, "energy": 83.591545, "activity_lines": [ 18.941453, 18.729825, 18.193767, 17.912987 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.024, "volume": 236482, "typical_volume": 44020.5, "trend": 17.671907, "fair_value": 15.18799, "relative_strength": 7.784175, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.047059, "energy": 75.596041, "activity_lines": [ 18.965946, 18.83288, 18.31708, 18.005325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.001101, "volume": 15355, "typical_volume": 40117.8, "trend": 17.74148, "fair_value": 15.227657, "relative_strength": 5.767773, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.814086, "energy": 62.312912, "activity_lines": [ 18.976634, 18.899927, 18.428103, 18.091079 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.4559, "volume": 49778, "typical_volume": 41898.15, "trend": 17.814437, "fair_value": 15.270863, "relative_strength": 5.590828, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.05211, "energy": 69.680199, "activity_lines": [ 19.132073, 19.029058, 18.571927, 18.201687 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }