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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.417, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.747, "architecture_energy": 61.394, "architecture_maturity": 13.541, "architecture_confidence": 66.045, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.17, "rotation_up": 75.04, "upward_expansion": 85.39, "deceleration": 50.62, "rotation_down": 10.9, "downward_expansion": 9.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.377333, 60.852727, 57.246564, 56.531159 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 64.23, "trend_reference": 56.132293, "distance_from_trend": 0.144261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.201486, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.016274, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.901726, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088772, "excess_performance": -0.036853, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144261, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004411, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.016274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.27379, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009017, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.298018, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088772, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.586302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3879038, "relative_activity": 0.897901, "balance": 2.586302, "dry_up": 1.085157, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065138, "annualized_volatility": 0.301845, "from_high_reference": -0.039982, "from_low_reference": 0.418286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.132293, "fair_value_reference": 63.201486, "structural_low": 45.287062, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.008167, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": 0.000961, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.102044, "worst_return": -0.0927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.017972, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.00389, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.170201, "worst_return": -0.119559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050578, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.047452, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134152, "worst_return": -0.000869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -0.732173, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.096217, "energy": 71.139971, "activity_lines": [ 61.362, 58.763015, 55.751358, 55.646948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 61.24, "volume": 5721686, "typical_volume": 4303253.2, "trend": 55.907708, "fair_value": 63.158847, "relative_strength": -2.515095, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.436089, "energy": 66.228064, "activity_lines": [ 61.494, 59.634909, 56.361321, 55.994237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.23, "volume": 3879038, "typical_volume": 4320118.45, "trend": 56.132293, "fair_value": 63.201486, "relative_strength": -0.901726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.746904, "energy": 61.394498, "activity_lines": [ 62.377333, 60.852727, 57.246564, 56.531159 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }