{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebbb20d8-d28c-473b-a29c-6a2ff04cb80c", "symbol": "688009", "name": "China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.544, "architecture_energy": 19.997, "architecture_maturity": 81.423, "architecture_confidence": 76.608, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.34, "rotation_up": 30.59, "upward_expansion": 21.72, "deceleration": 44.13, "rotation_down": 26.18, "downward_expansion": 58.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.952237, 4.900511, 4.941037, 5.080295 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.94, "trend_reference": 5.250065, "distance_from_trend": -0.059059, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.265148, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061755, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.419503, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.101818, "excess_performance": -0.058614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059059, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061755, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068313, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.773634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169325090, "relative_activity": 1.103673, "balance": 0.773634, "dry_up": 1.255729, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04527, "annualized_volatility": 0.221692, "from_high_reference": -0.22449, "from_low_reference": 0.062942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.250065, "fair_value_reference": 5.265148, "structural_low": 4.647477, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -1.8e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008073, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.147505, "worst_return": -0.081967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.038621, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.029912, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.317536, "worst_return": -0.126253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.061831, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.041461, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.160751, "worst_return": -0.083457, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.811456, "energy": 67.749405, "activity_lines": [ 4.796053, 4.833748, 4.983508, 5.137586 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.908897, "volume": 238173393, "typical_volume": 163676147.85, "trend": 5.280065, "fair_value": 5.270723, "relative_strength": -4.513852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.37811, "energy": 46.200345, "activity_lines": [ 4.830148, 4.842946, 4.957246, 5.112411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.11, "volume": 198710662, "typical_volume": 156325521.85, "trend": 5.267732, "fair_value": 5.26895, "relative_strength": -0.819303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.847994, "energy": 25.635231, "activity_lines": [ 4.932684, 4.889456, 4.954808, 5.101439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.94, "volume": 169325090, "typical_volume": 153419625.35, "trend": 5.250065, "fair_value": 5.265148, "relative_strength": -6.419503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.543935, "energy": 19.997018, "activity_lines": [ 4.952237, 4.900511, 4.941037, 5.080295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }