{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebbccabe-8987-4df9-b168-9f81366a808d", "symbol": "BMBL", "name": "Bumble Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -82.04, "architecture_energy": 92.284, "architecture_maturity": 49.703, "architecture_confidence": 92.916, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.12, "rotation_up": 29.5, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 54.42, "downward_expansion": 90.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.339999, 52.680726, 56.825761, 58.989354 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 51.0, "trend_reference": 60.626999, "distance_from_trend": -0.158791, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 167.737115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.695953, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.5718, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12069, "excess_performance": -0.066023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158791, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078612, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.695953, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048377, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021906, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12069, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105, "relative_activity": 1.554404, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.388601, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031493, "annualized_volatility": 0.472771, "from_high_reference": -0.607692, "from_low_reference": 0.021021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.626999, "fair_value_reference": 167.737115, "structural_low": 49.950001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.157895, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.049621, "regime_survival": 0.894737, "best_return": 0.348944, "worst_return": -0.475956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.184077, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.242473, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.442529, "worst_return": -0.52459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.314208, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.498461, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.12, "worst_return": -0.581236, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.712815, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.837074, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.712815, "worst_return": -0.712815, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-11-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.759725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051546, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1296, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085206, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044865, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037917, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 300.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.5, "trend": 427.866667, "fair_value": 631.38353, "relative_strength": -34.757569, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.654979, "energy": 98.127424, "activity_lines": [ 354.8, 389.672727, 411.557143, 419.617204 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 260.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 12.75, "trend": 421.966667, "fair_value": 628.288667, "relative_strength": -42.037981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.919753, "energy": 98.571672, "activity_lines": [ 314.066667, 362.472727, 396.004762, 408.787097 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 260.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.75, "trend": 416.066667, "fair_value": 625.244959, "relative_strength": -41.093326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.688314, "energy": 98.140903, "activity_lines": [ 285.133333, 338.490909, 381.295238, 398.337634 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 260.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.75, "trend": 410.166667, "fair_value": 622.251148, "relative_strength": -39.490285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.284624, "energy": 93.799591, "activity_lines": 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"fair_value": 169.333269, "relative_strength": -32.391855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.859569, "energy": 85.577502, "activity_lines": [ 53.009998, 53.127634, 57.810856, 59.631827 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.0, "volume": 105, "typical_volume": 67.55, "trend": 60.626999, "fair_value": 167.737115, "relative_strength": -33.5718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.03978, "energy": 92.283731, "activity_lines": [ 52.339999, 52.680726, 56.825761, 58.989354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }