{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebbd3159-8a39-4d70-90a1-23430e9ce25e", "symbol": "ZWQT", "name": "BMO Global Enhanced Income Fund Series ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.949, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.888, "architecture_energy": 67.524, "architecture_maturity": 92.884, "architecture_confidence": 69.238, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.3, "rotation_up": 55.97, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.64, "rotation_down": 29.56, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.640272, 20.592034, 20.275533, 19.878051 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.82, "trend_reference": 19.393556, "distance_from_trend": 0.073552, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.042529, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.2978, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.114853, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112437, "excess_performance": -0.007984, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073552, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04814, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.2978, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008713, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112437, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.492485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9100, "relative_activity": 0.732689, "balance": 0.492485, "dry_up": 1.723027, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013991, "annualized_volatility": 0.091381, "from_high_reference": -0.00478, "from_low_reference": 0.283625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.393556, "fair_value_reference": 16.042529, "structural_low": 17.910463, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012504, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.012617, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.049125, "worst_return": -0.082389, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052763, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.027549, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.067128, "worst_return": -0.074943, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.065961, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066413, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125946, "worst_return": 0.005977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.11911, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182301, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.11911, "worst_return": 0.11911, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020064, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009677, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032391, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017162, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002088, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.083191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05892, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090941, "active": true } ], 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"modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.589078, "energy": 68.648289, "activity_lines": [ 20.574332, 20.502923, 20.084452, 19.697872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.52, "volume": 50100, "typical_volume": 12730.0, "trend": 19.315366, "fair_value": 15.992322, "relative_strength": 1.629433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.002718, "energy": 63.226177, "activity_lines": [ 20.561311, 20.524733, 20.171262, 19.780978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.82, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 12420.0, "trend": 19.393556, "fair_value": 16.042529, "relative_strength": -0.114853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.887567, "energy": 67.523945, "activity_lines": [ 20.640272, 20.592034, 20.275533, 19.878051 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }