{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebc0ff6e-82d2-41a6-817a-98ff5092c69f", "symbol": "300188", "name": "SDIC Intelligence Information Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.762, "architecture_energy": 29.07, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.803, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.79, "rotation_up": 27.4, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 34.15, "downward_expansion": 66.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.554, 10.281636, 10.751238, 11.368602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.18, "trend_reference": 12.315667, "distance_from_trend": -0.092213, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.982051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.200403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.662048, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.196839, "excess_performance": -0.204239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.092213, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108551, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.200403, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21662, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058092, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196839, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.103435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168087813, "relative_activity": 3.197613, "balance": 1.103435, "dry_up": 1.734562, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088413, "annualized_volatility": 0.41549, "from_high_reference": -0.439318, "from_low_reference": 0.198285 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.315667, "fair_value_reference": 13.982051, "structural_low": 9.33, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.010615, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": 0.00268, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.358875, "worst_return": -0.216549, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.023073, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016993, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.356624, "worst_return": -0.244355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.036685, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003032, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.12406, "worst_return": -0.224096, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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57640082.5, "trend": 12.869667, "fair_value": 14.210064, "relative_strength": -35.691622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.058576, "energy": 73.06464, "activity_lines": [ 9.941333, 10.361455, 11.226143, 11.950774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.66, "volume": 58312636, "typical_volume": 51482559.75, "trend": 12.695667, "fair_value": 14.138718, "relative_strength": -32.042432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.766157, "energy": 66.992566, "activity_lines": [ 9.830667, 10.138545, 11.010286, 11.743699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.78, "volume": 64534144, "typical_volume": 50104564.55, "trend": 12.548333, "fair_value": 14.07859, "relative_strength": -30.766236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.988061, "energy": 60.341035, "activity_lines": [ 9.806667, 9.998727, 10.826857, 11.555591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 73785818, "typical_volume": 47412679.2, "trend": 12.43, "fair_value": 14.024615, "relative_strength": -20.792272, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.302301, "energy": 42.468338, "activity_lines": [ 10.184667, 10.108545, 10.768571, 11.449247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.18, "volume": 168087813, "typical_volume": 52566645.05, "trend": 12.315667, "fair_value": 13.982051, "relative_strength": -21.662048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.762426, "energy": 29.069522, "activity_lines": [ 10.554, 10.281636, 10.751238, 11.368602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }