{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebc684b2-6184-45dc-a5e8-46fceae0c40d", "symbol": "HVY", "name": "Heavy Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.629, "architecture_energy": 26.197, "architecture_maturity": 37.569, "architecture_confidence": 59.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.62, "rotation_up": 21.01, "upward_expansion": 13.85, "deceleration": 64.71, "rotation_down": 39.19, "downward_expansion": 61.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.441333, 0.437636, 0.459762, 0.470581 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.45, "trend_reference": 0.490667, "distance_from_trend": -0.08288, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.250308, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.797787, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.987451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.196429, "excess_performance": -0.260134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08288, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.797787, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.489405, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.079875, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27922, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.196429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.317198, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 336635, "relative_activity": 2.612732, "balance": 1.317198, "dry_up": 1.381024, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119231, "annualized_volatility": 0.653518, "from_high_reference": -0.357143, "from_low_reference": 0.607143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.490667, "fair_value_reference": 0.250308, "structural_low": 0.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.038462, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.036895, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.597938, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.040404, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.039169, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.397059, "worst_return": -0.242105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020619, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.074413, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.764706, "worst_return": -0.284211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067416, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079208, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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}, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.465, "volume": 23931, "typical_volume": 176231.3, "trend": 0.499833, "fair_value": 0.243128, "relative_strength": 1.590456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.081327, "energy": 67.949467, "activity_lines": [ 0.434667, 0.457545, 0.475595, 0.486419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.4, "volume": 111761, "typical_volume": 133269.5, "trend": 0.494833, "fair_value": 0.244603, "relative_strength": -12.750951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.078524, "energy": 75.07632, "activity_lines": [ 0.420667, 0.444091, 0.468071, 0.479978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.435, "volume": 58285, "typical_volume": 130637.3, "trend": 0.493333, "fair_value": 0.246397, "relative_strength": -5.194911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.630087, "energy": 60.03868, "activity_lines": [ 0.424333, 0.439, 0.464286, 0.476118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.45, "volume": 205066, "typical_volume": 123701.15, "trend": 0.4925, "fair_value": 0.248353, "relative_strength": -4.622396, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.787957, "energy": 32.393867, "activity_lines": [ 0.434667, 0.437818, 0.461952, 0.473323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.45, "volume": 336635, "typical_volume": 128844.05, "trend": 0.490667, "fair_value": 0.250308, "relative_strength": -7.987451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.628756, "energy": 26.196775, "activity_lines": [ 0.441333, 0.437636, 0.459762, 0.470581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }