{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebcc9ba7-e7ab-4652-a078-9c7142601bd7", "symbol": "GSC1", "name": "Gesco SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.863, "architecture_energy": 35.026, "architecture_maturity": 38.597, "architecture_confidence": 87.904, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.07, "rotation_up": 25.56, "upward_expansion": 9.1, "deceleration": 55.23, "rotation_down": 44.79, "downward_expansion": 73.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.33, 13.330053, 13.560505, 13.793833 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 14.153255, "distance_from_trend": -0.053221, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.936239, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.159149, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.150818, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.121311, "excess_performance": -0.185951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053221, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029372, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.159149, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.121311, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388365, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19303, "relative_activity": 1.107389, "balance": 0.388365, "dry_up": 0.973433, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041019, "annualized_volatility": 0.223728, "from_high_reference": -0.259669, "from_low_reference": 0.030769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.153255, "fair_value_reference": 15.936239, "structural_low": 13.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.003612, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.021415, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.108636, "worst_return": -0.118012, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.034722, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.019787, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.276018, "worst_return": -0.227273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031654, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.052979, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.386735, "worst_return": -0.247788, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.165182, "energy": 52.652627, "activity_lines": [ 13.320097, 13.467428, 13.784031, 14.038114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.25, "volume": 7790, "typical_volume": 19429.4, "trend": 14.274921, "fair_value": 16.103755, "relative_strength": -13.862755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.274711, "energy": 55.65645, "activity_lines": [ 13.289855, 13.396969, 13.709519, 13.968334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.2, "volume": 26423, "typical_volume": 19767.55, "trend": 14.229921, "fair_value": 16.047478, "relative_strength": -14.615606, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.363749, "energy": 55.241841, "activity_lines": [ 13.236667, 13.338102, 13.639054, 13.898984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.4, "volume": 14356, "typical_volume": 18946.45, "trend": 14.199921, "fair_value": 15.992482, "relative_strength": -14.436427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.860853, "energy": 41.589567, "activity_lines": [ 13.283333, 13.329131, 13.596684, 13.845441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.4, "volume": 19303, "typical_volume": 17431.1, "trend": 14.153255, "fair_value": 15.936239, "relative_strength": -16.150818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.86319, "energy": 35.025806, "activity_lines": [ 13.33, 13.330053, 13.560505, 13.793833 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }