{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebcd8ed3-d15f-45e2-8cbd-14e454a94c26", "symbol": "IRFC", "name": "Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.894, "architecture_energy": 75.374, "architecture_maturity": 58.903, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 16.2, "upward_expansion": 17.51, "deceleration": 39.31, "rotation_down": 66.94, "downward_expansion": 90.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 88.662002, 90.105274, 93.662953, 95.761824 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 88.75, "trend_reference": 99.864023, "distance_from_trend": -0.111292, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 123.632248, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.282145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.595989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.216864, "excess_performance": -0.173155, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.111292, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083822, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.282145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175849, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216864, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.198438, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38469401, "relative_activity": 0.840948, "balance": 0.198438, "dry_up": 0.816637, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041569, "annualized_volatility": 0.251345, "from_high_reference": -0.346121, "from_low_reference": 0.031737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.864023, "fair_value_reference": 123.632248, "structural_low": 86.019997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.015375, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.611111, "median_excess_return": 0.001389, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.121117, "worst_return": -0.255201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065106, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.044874, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.146916, "worst_return": -0.122017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032892, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03799, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.553561, "worst_return": -0.207025, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.399479, "energy": 75.442989, "activity_lines": [ 92.133334, 94.380182, 96.851387, 99.45694 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 88.410004, "volume": 31354994, "typical_volume": 52087938.85, "trend": 103.658069, "fair_value": 122.713652, "relative_strength": -18.675268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.479705, "energy": 87.686888, "activity_lines": [ 90.427335, 92.914728, 95.96188, 98.420781 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.620003, "volume": 29767475, "typical_volume": 47937733.1, "trend": 102.17088, "fair_value": 123.062449, "relative_strength": -16.932863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.601647, "energy": 88.947181, "activity_lines": [ 88.956669, 91.626001, 95.064048, 97.386067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 89.150002, "volume": 49837394, "typical_volume": 46945807.85, "trend": 100.904885, "fair_value": 123.360322, "relative_strength": -17.110864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.752886, "energy": 82.769313, "activity_lines": [ 88.788669, 90.81982, 94.363382, 96.54601 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.75, "volume": 38469401, "typical_volume": 45745295.9, "trend": 99.864023, "fair_value": 123.632248, "relative_strength": -17.595989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.893749, "energy": 75.374149, "activity_lines": [ 88.662002, 90.105274, 93.662953, 95.761824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }