{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebd026c2-5a0d-4226-b947-ebefac52b968", "symbol": "NMAN", "name": "Nederman Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 56.141, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.182, "architecture_energy": 7.55, "architecture_maturity": 17.042, "architecture_confidence": 58.39, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.18, "rotation_up": 26.73, "upward_expansion": 27.77, "deceleration": 39.48, "rotation_down": 24.23, "downward_expansion": 47.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 130.080001, 129.865454, 127.455062, 128.275917 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 135.600006, "trend_reference": 131.28275, "distance_from_trend": 0.032885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 172.000817, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.211632, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.323083, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.020465, "excess_performance": -0.081959, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032885, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064475, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.211632, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100057, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127833, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020465, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.618414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 106040, "relative_activity": 0.763554, "balance": 1.618414, "dry_up": 0.749347, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050261, "annualized_volatility": 0.306623, "from_high_reference": -0.207043, "from_low_reference": 0.183246 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.28275, "fair_value_reference": 172.000817, "structural_low": 114.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.039906, "positive_rate": 0.421053, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": -0.018498, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.241398, "worst_return": -0.166197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.091584, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.039528, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.209961, "worst_return": -0.170626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065313, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.12141, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 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"typical_volume": 166260.35, "trend": 133.333984, "fair_value": 172.785732, "relative_strength": -20.184009, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.239019, "energy": 10.777118, "activity_lines": [ 128.293332, 128.17818, 126.426624, 128.392659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 128.199997, "volume": 72715, "typical_volume": 163595.15, "trend": 132.275512, "fair_value": 172.40815, "relative_strength": -19.959694, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.25989, "energy": 17.535005, "activity_lines": [ 127.919998, 128.429089, 126.585794, 128.061434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.600006, "volume": 106040, "typical_volume": 138876.9, "trend": 131.28275, "fair_value": 172.000817, "relative_strength": -16.323083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.182238, "energy": 7.550284, "activity_lines": [ 130.080001, 129.865454, 127.455062, 128.275917 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }