{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebd2bef6-301c-4f76-a0e1-ca82aa578a29", "symbol": "REAG", "name": "L&G Emerging Markets Equity UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.373, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.072, "architecture_energy": 26.484, "architecture_maturity": 65.146, "architecture_confidence": 84.711, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.41, "rotation_up": 18.08, "upward_expansion": 52.99, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 36.79, "downward_expansion": 18.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.1744, 17.453873, 17.404009, 16.989019 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.284, "trend_reference": 16.432333, "distance_from_trend": 0.051829, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.683789, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.283825, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136283, "excess_performance": 0.085048, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051829, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082192, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.052838, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143039, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136283, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.227188, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2613, "relative_activity": 2.302913, "balance": 0.227188, "dry_up": 3.047636, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036806, "annualized_volatility": 0.211828, "from_high_reference": -0.073095, "from_low_reference": 0.389054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.432333, "fair_value_reference": 12.683789, "structural_low": 14.583, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.088702, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123999, "worst_return": 0.033452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.081976, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.078839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231975, "worst_return": 0.080951, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.279666, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.190213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.363583, "worst_return": 0.195749, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.521038, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.324856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.521038, "worst_return": 0.521038, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039956, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.110102, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042267, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00688, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.121397, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.03058, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009874, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 10.4232, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-10", "close": 10.4383, "volume": 0, 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"fair_value": 12.621157, "relative_strength": 6.453612, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.7672, "energy": 25.162483, "activity_lines": [ 17.3918, 17.649163, 17.345076, 16.877679 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.040001, "volume": 11219, "typical_volume": 1004.0, "trend": 16.345566, "fair_value": 12.651843, "relative_strength": 4.406078, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.908211, "energy": 26.218774, "activity_lines": [ 17.210667, 17.526345, 17.367485, 16.928475 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.284, "volume": 2613, "typical_volume": 1134.65, "trend": 16.432333, "fair_value": 12.683789, "relative_strength": 5.283825, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.071506, "energy": 26.483861, "activity_lines": [ 17.1744, 17.453873, 17.404009, 16.989019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }