{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebd6397c-2fb1-4cb9-bd7c-de7821303ae0", "symbol": "I1QY34", "name": "iQIYI, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.648, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 14.894, "architecture_energy": 36.754, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 41.341, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.12, "rotation_up": 50.62, "upward_expansion": 37.31, "deceleration": 47.09, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 45.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.176, 2.993455, 2.927286, 3.087333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.29, "trend_reference": 3.49, "distance_from_trend": -0.057307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.191731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.54253, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.884935, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.359922, "excess_performance": -0.302874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202286, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.54253, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.09211, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.328849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.359922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.152259, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97, "relative_activity": 0.030151, "balance": 2.152259, "dry_up": 0.162025, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057751, "annualized_volatility": 0.566188, "from_high_reference": -0.571056, "from_low_reference": 0.300395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.49, "fair_value_reference": 7.191731, "structural_low": 2.53, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.036878, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.002263, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.822901, "worst_return": -0.300847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.012238, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.027137, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.889344, "worst_return": -0.466425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.037062, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.515027, "worst_return": -0.442831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.276018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.14168, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.28, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041979, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118911, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06055, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.402904, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.96, "volume": 350, "typical_volume": 6982.7, "trend": 15.312333, "fair_value": 21.315468, "relative_strength": -2.837919, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", 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"down", "direction": -67.112179, "energy": 74.927577, "activity_lines": [ 2.613333, 2.684545, 2.890667, 3.280903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.96, "volume": 63, "typical_volume": 7577.1, "trend": 3.783, "fair_value": 7.469744, "relative_strength": -44.691627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.453824, "energy": 56.643606, "activity_lines": [ 2.723333, 2.722, 2.872143, 3.222194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.97, "volume": 498, "typical_volume": 6766.0, "trend": 3.711333, "fair_value": 7.411859, "relative_strength": -42.234613, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.275174, "energy": 44.034203, "activity_lines": [ 2.820667, 2.761273, 2.862952, 3.169742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.07, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": 4395.2, "trend": 3.636667, "fair_value": 7.334808, "relative_strength": -39.473016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.411578, "energy": 31.760973, "activity_lines": [ 2.93, 2.818, 2.868524, 3.128366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.27, "volume": 1446, "typical_volume": 3270.45, "trend": 3.559333, "fair_value": 7.261538, "relative_strength": -36.143162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.199949, "energy": 30.324413, "activity_lines": [ 3.074, 2.909091, 2.896524, 3.10471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.29, "volume": 97, "typical_volume": 3217.1, "trend": 3.49, "fair_value": 7.191731, "relative_strength": -32.884935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.894133, "energy": 36.75355, "activity_lines": [ 3.176, 2.993455, 2.927286, 3.087333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }