{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebdcbe16-9fc1-4f1f-b19e-25e0e4b76c03", "symbol": "SPQH", "name": "Global X S&P 500 Quarterly Tail Hedge UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.356, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.505, "architecture_energy": 54.405, "architecture_maturity": 67.536, "architecture_confidence": 66.281, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.68, "rotation_up": 52.78, "upward_expansion": 81.7, "deceleration": 68.48, "rotation_down": 27.2, "downward_expansion": 8.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.239066, 18.222909, 18.050552, 17.909389 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.389999, "trend_reference": 17.758267, "distance_from_trend": 0.035574, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.846333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091632, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.162722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.051939, "excess_performance": -0.012701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035574, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013399, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.091632, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031627, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.051939, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.563609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113, "relative_activity": 0.030484, "balance": 1.563609, "dry_up": 0.156804, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011687, "annualized_volatility": 0.064034, "from_high_reference": -0.001737, "from_low_reference": 0.094382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.758267, "fair_value_reference": 16.846333, "structural_low": 17.218, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.002108, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.008138, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.061896, "worst_return": -0.076404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003884, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028531, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.101829, "worst_return": -0.137503, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.0211, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007477, "worst_return": -0.049676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.80149, "energy": 45.652469, "activity_lines": [ 18.172533, 18.174764, 17.995219, 17.867217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.389999, "volume": 113, "typical_volume": 3706.85, "trend": 17.758267, "fair_value": 16.846333, "relative_strength": -3.162722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.504713, "energy": 54.405419, "activity_lines": [ 18.239066, 18.222909, 18.050552, 17.909389 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }