{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebde8ca9-da8c-4250-992c-804b599d81e9", "symbol": "HEMA", "name": "HSBC MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.942, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.458, "architecture_energy": 25.089, "architecture_maturity": 65.431, "architecture_confidence": 79.988, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.9, "rotation_up": 18.23, "upward_expansion": 52.62, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 36.0, "downward_expansion": 18.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.73, 15.985673, 15.927924, 15.548796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 15.89, "trend_reference": 15.056067, "distance_from_trend": 0.055389, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.580788, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.3721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.153734, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132896, "excess_performance": -0.037996, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055389, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077337, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.3721, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075536, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021537, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124072, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911117, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62333, "relative_activity": 1.119075, "balance": 0.911117, "dry_up": 1.753056, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0414, "annualized_volatility": 0.225719, "from_high_reference": -0.073145, "from_low_reference": 0.367941 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.056067, "fair_value_reference": 11.580788, "structural_low": 13.162, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023848, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081784, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010823, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026311, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109705, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037683, "active": false }, { "regime": 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71.634378, "activity_lines": [ 16.5304, 16.251237, 15.547419, 15.09363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.556, "volume": 8422, "typical_volume": 55977.4, "trend": 14.587333, "fair_value": 11.383186, "relative_strength": 4.309571, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.212947, "energy": 67.404099, "activity_lines": [ 16.568134, 16.357237, 15.692819, 15.228533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.386, "volume": 79774, "typical_volume": 55834.65, "trend": 14.712733, "fair_value": 11.427763, "relative_strength": 3.435645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.014713, "energy": 60.726658, "activity_lines": [ 16.538, 16.404982, 15.810886, 15.344576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.448, "volume": 107577, "typical_volume": 59090.6, "trend": 14.803067, "fair_value": 11.466615, "relative_strength": -1.185216, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.831053, "energy": 37.433567, "activity_lines": [ 16.163733, 16.256982, 15.831067, 15.392013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.678, "volume": 76100, "typical_volume": 61408.35, "trend": 14.9016, "fair_value": 11.50425, "relative_strength": 0.306041, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.642377, "energy": 23.620998, "activity_lines": [ 15.9284, 16.160364, 15.869629, 15.44846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.546, "volume": 144574, "typical_volume": 55605.15, "trend": 14.9792, "fair_value": 11.541417, "relative_strength": -1.328535, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.562761, "energy": 24.822073, "activity_lines": [ 15.740933, 16.038909, 15.886514, 15.490034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.89, "volume": 62333, "typical_volume": 55700.45, "trend": 15.056067, "fair_value": 11.580788, "relative_strength": -2.153734, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.457519, "energy": 25.088951, "activity_lines": [ 15.73, 15.985673, 15.927924, 15.548796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }