{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ebe88111-42c3-4cd8-99ff-aca6061f273d",
    "symbol": "SKL",
    "name": "Skellerup Holdings Limited",
    "exchange": "NZE",
    "country": "NZ",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^NZ50",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 85.453,
    "architecture_energy": 80.271,
    "architecture_maturity": 66.795,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.871,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 6.67,
        "rotation_up": 76.92,
        "upward_expansion": 89.13,
        "deceleration": 50.99,
        "rotation_down": 12.48,
        "downward_expansion": 15.8
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.904,
        6.731091,
        6.452524,
        6.225121
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 7.17,
    "trend_reference": 5.92593,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.209937,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 4.660772,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.538372,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 24.620814,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.407636,
    "excess_performance": 0.379362,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.209937,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.083033,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.538372,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.169676,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.246208,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044374,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.407636,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.461357,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 785369,
      "relative_activity": 1.121505,
      "balance": 3.461357,
      "dry_up": 1.233505,
      "accumulation_observations": 6,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.039856,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.236378,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001393,
      "from_low_reference": 0.638449
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 5.92593,
      "fair_value_reference": 4.660772,
      "structural_low": 5.083852,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 30,
        "median_return": 0.02109,
        "positive_rate": 0.533333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.533333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.005607,
        "regime_survival": 0.8,
        "best_return": 0.119778,
        "worst_return": -0.080441,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.043902,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": 0.052763,
        "regime_survival": 0.636364,
        "best_return": 0.264554,
        "worst_return": -0.135029,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.00996,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056472,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
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        "worst_return": -0.211779,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "median_excess_return": 0.009108,
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        "worst_return": -0.064984,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2024-07-26",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 4.581519,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 680271.5,
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        "fair_value": 4.598555,
        "relative_strength": 19.1405,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.338995,
        "energy": 73.671732,
        "activity_lines": [
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          6.003418
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 698858.75,
        "trend": 5.799085,
        "fair_value": 4.617132,
        "relative_strength": 19.015732,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.632284,
        "energy": 63.863925,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.95,
        "volume": 845567,
        "typical_volume": 685100.0,
        "trend": 5.85933,
        "fair_value": 4.637401,
        "relative_strength": 22.85818,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 82.102629,
        "energy": 68.458197,
        "activity_lines": [
          6.727333,
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          6.350667,
          6.140561
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.17,
        "volume": 785369,
        "typical_volume": 700281.55,
        "trend": 5.92593,
        "fair_value": 4.660772,
        "relative_strength": 24.620814,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 85.453015,
        "energy": 80.271194,
        "activity_lines": [
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          6.452524,
          6.225121
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}