{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebf02c02-aee4-46c0-9162-5f131d89466c", "symbol": "002228", "name": "Xiamen Hexing Packaging Printing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.713, "architecture_energy": 56.481, "architecture_maturity": 92.411, "architecture_confidence": 91.919, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 28.97, "upward_expansion": 10.42, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 47.86, "downward_expansion": 81.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.04, 3.050491, 3.220822, 3.426914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.08, "trend_reference": 3.738974, "distance_from_trend": -0.176245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.07903, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000315, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.519904, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.298405, "excess_performance": -0.305805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098364, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000315, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280171, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054092, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.298405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.129022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86140400, "relative_activity": 0.93319, "balance": 0.129022, "dry_up": 1.151659, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065784, "annualized_volatility": 0.239783, "from_high_reference": -0.530455, "from_low_reference": 0.092199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.738974, "fair_value_reference": 3.07903, "structural_low": 2.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.016736, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.00638, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.124514, "worst_return": -0.160804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.028654, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.005449, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.363265, "worst_return": -0.210807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02403, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.016933, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.261225, "worst_return": -0.096149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 2.9, "volume": 125377656, "typical_volume": 93006467.75, "trend": 3.890655, "fair_value": 3.076126, "relative_strength": -23.175735, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.839684, "energy": 69.169567, "activity_lines": [ 3.002, 3.063816, 3.294053, 3.524187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.09, "volume": 98535992, "typical_volume": 92973710.1, "trend": 3.787079, "fair_value": 3.077781, "relative_strength": -16.514192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.541206, "energy": 62.527092, "activity_lines": [ 3.025333, 3.054418, 3.255437, 3.472532 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.08, "volume": 86140400, "typical_volume": 92307428.0, "trend": 3.738974, "fair_value": 3.07903, "relative_strength": -20.519904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.712834, "energy": 56.481385, "activity_lines": [ 3.04, 3.050491, 3.220822, 3.426914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }