{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebf2e5f4-e55b-4801-a8b6-9103df2c0dc9", "symbol": "BOBR4", "name": "Bombril S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 49.338, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.257, "architecture_energy": 29.347, "architecture_maturity": 76.697, "architecture_confidence": 66.512, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.36, "rotation_up": 13.18, "upward_expansion": 12.13, "deceleration": 55.94, "rotation_down": 62.61, "downward_expansion": 68.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.222, 1.248, 1.246714, 1.247742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.2, "trend_reference": 1.248667, "distance_from_trend": -0.038975, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.752628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.315314, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.425642, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.076923, "excess_performance": -0.019875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038975, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007682, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.315314, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138411, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.851852, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8200, "relative_activity": 0.645669, "balance": 0.851852, "dry_up": 0.503937, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080769, "annualized_volatility": 0.45503, "from_high_reference": -0.220779, "from_low_reference": 0.034483 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.248667, "fair_value_reference": 1.752628, "structural_low": 1.16, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.02011, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.037552, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051095, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.000919, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.458333, "worst_return": -0.180995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.076336, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.03063, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.366667, "worst_return": -0.298643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.181818, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.159989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.29927, "worst_return": -0.447964, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173077, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117978, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.18239, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.167513, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004902, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062201, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.169014, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005208, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.366516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.083969, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.9, "volume": 248100, "typical_volume": 400250.0, "trend": 1.471667, "fair_value": 1.73109, "relative_strength": 32.603463, "stage": 2, 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"trend": 1.553667, "fair_value": 1.730833, "relative_strength": 24.337068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.727223, "energy": 44.557273, "activity_lines": [ 1.974, 1.945091, 1.846714, 1.723978 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-15", "close": 1.83, "volume": 107100, "typical_volume": 387870.0, "trend": 1.576333, "fair_value": 1.729679, "relative_strength": 20.25942, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.670537, "energy": 33.245986, "activity_lines": [ 1.919333, 1.932909, 1.854762, 1.741806 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-22", "close": 1.78, "volume": 81000, "typical_volume": 383605.0, "trend": 1.597667, "fair_value": 1.728333, "relative_strength": 19.194453, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.317908, "energy": 20.701972, "activity_lines": [ 1.862, 1.910182, 1.856048, 1.754946 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-29", "close": 1.75, "volume": 133500, "typical_volume": 367385.0, "trend": 1.617333, "fair_value": 1.726987, "relative_strength": 16.103285, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.006628, "energy": 22.52361, "activity_lines": [ 1.802667, 1.881455, 1.85281, 1.764774 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-06", "close": 1.69, "volume": 49900, "typical_volume": 349620.0, "trend": 1.634333, "fair_value": 1.725577, "relative_strength": 13.845214, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.137929, "energy": 15.005521, "activity_lines": [ 1.752, 1.841091, 1.842667, 1.769462 ] }, { "date": "2023-10-13", "close": 1.64, "volume": 58700, "typical_volume": 273315.0, "trend": 1.650667, "fair_value": 1.723782, "relative_strength": 8.524342, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.913774, "energy": 18.809253, "activity_lines": [ 1.706667, 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19100.0, "trend": 1.263, "fair_value": 1.769872, "relative_strength": -1.086092, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.191608, "energy": 38.486643, "activity_lines": [ 1.321333, 1.28, 1.262571, 1.259054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.23, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 18090.0, "trend": 1.257333, "fair_value": 1.766795, "relative_strength": -10.148064, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.142167, "energy": 24.213449, "activity_lines": [ 1.3, 1.274545, 1.260238, 1.256925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.21, "volume": 13200, "typical_volume": 18515.0, "trend": 1.254, "fair_value": 1.762949, "relative_strength": -11.00846, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.639518, "energy": 10.66707, "activity_lines": [ 1.274667, 1.265455, 1.255952, 1.253871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.21, "volume": 1700, "typical_volume": 18455.0, "trend": 1.251, "fair_value": 1.758013, "relative_strength": -12.236869, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.988709, "energy": 2.483972, "activity_lines": [ 1.25, 1.256545, 1.251667, 1.251032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.2, "volume": 8200, "typical_volume": 12700.0, "trend": 1.248667, "fair_value": 1.752628, "relative_strength": -9.425642, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.256726, "energy": 29.347485, "activity_lines": [ 1.222, 1.248, 1.246714, 1.247742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }