{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebf48eb2-b74f-4c62-9598-90e18853c68d", "symbol": "002757", "name": "Nanxing Machinery Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.267, "architecture_energy": 68.509, "architecture_maturity": 17.821, "architecture_confidence": 84.72, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.73, "rotation_up": 11.16, "upward_expansion": 14.95, "deceleration": 39.12, "rotation_down": 69.94, "downward_expansion": 88.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.509333, 17.316727, 19.927025, 20.6297 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.68, "trend_reference": 21.372278, "distance_from_trend": -0.17276, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.378001, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.079497, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.452719, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.168895, "excess_performance": -0.176295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17276, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022999, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.079497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.745774, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134527, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.168895, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.903243, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130880898, "relative_activity": 1.606402, "balance": 0.903243, "dry_up": 1.033923, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164075, "annualized_volatility": 0.677796, "from_high_reference": -0.456995, "from_low_reference": 0.276534 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.372278, "fair_value_reference": 16.378001, "structural_low": 13.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009071, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008758, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.52439, "worst_return": -0.134461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024714, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.084291, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.397188, "worst_return": -0.073691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.091091, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.098842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.68307, "worst_return": -0.118896, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 78802277.05, "trend": 21.412941, "fair_value": 16.327558, "relative_strength": -24.4993, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.287545, "energy": 78.308985, "activity_lines": [ 16.431333, 18.215989, 20.75332, 21.200031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.32, "volume": 79570881, "typical_volume": 78072203.65, "trend": 21.427187, "fair_value": 16.346486, "relative_strength": -16.551307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.950385, "energy": 72.140318, "activity_lines": [ 16.173333, 17.531818, 20.264681, 20.871454 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.68, "volume": 130880898, "typical_volume": 81474538.9, "trend": 21.372278, "fair_value": 16.378001, "relative_strength": -13.452719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.266686, "energy": 68.508707, "activity_lines": [ 16.509333, 17.316727, 19.927025, 20.6297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }