{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ebfe2bdd-1559-4192-8a80-16c6ca7de157", "symbol": "COLD", "name": "Americold Realty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 80.866, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.164, "architecture_energy": 20.394, "architecture_maturity": 52.089, "architecture_confidence": 85.841, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.32, "rotation_up": 30.62, "upward_expansion": 59.97, "deceleration": 84.79, "rotation_down": 26.87, "downward_expansion": 18.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.766, 14.987291, 14.651751, 14.066987 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.96, "trend_reference": 13.451232, "distance_from_trend": 0.112166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.178375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.219955, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.137258, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.205391, "excess_performance": 0.079766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112166, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094543, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.219955, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05673, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031373, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048564, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.205391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85319, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23135305, "relative_activity": 1.083125, "balance": 0.85319, "dry_up": 0.987891, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08444, "annualized_volatility": 0.493283, "from_high_reference": -0.113744, "from_low_reference": 0.537938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.451232, "fair_value_reference": 19.178375, "structural_low": 10.489478, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.027697, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.060698, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.091344, "worst_return": -0.143812, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.045395, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.121913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.04758, "worst_return": -0.245925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049726, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000591, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163837, "worst_return": -0.212898, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.107183, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.374073, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.193359, "worst_return": -0.55724, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022723, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051579, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105329, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085907, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.273948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193215, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114983, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.139985, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002535, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 28.103407, "volume": 4980872, "typical_volume": 6295213.25, "trend": 26.562189, "fair_value": 26.96667, "relative_strength": 2.296857, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"activity_lines": [ 15.447656, 15.10227, 14.186035, 13.669208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.93, "volume": 20130330, "typical_volume": 21135818.25, "trend": 13.273613, "fair_value": 19.441487, "relative_strength": 12.716767, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.074353, "energy": 69.49644, "activity_lines": [ 15.717102, 15.292329, 14.426394, 13.849557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.32, "volume": 23945287, "typical_volume": 21493980.65, "trend": 13.339703, "fair_value": 19.353301, "relative_strength": 2.49845, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.322041, "energy": 42.89561, "activity_lines": [ 15.337981, 15.165952, 14.500071, 13.917066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.09, "volume": 17193617, "typical_volume": 21330812.1, "trend": 13.386523, "fair_value": 19.262346, "relative_strength": 0.298307, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.093412, "energy": 25.291326, "activity_lines": [ 14.852, 14.992927, 14.542051, 13.965472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.96, "volume": 23135305, "typical_volume": 21359775.95, "trend": 13.451232, "fair_value": 19.178375, "relative_strength": 3.137258, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.163527, "energy": 20.393735, "activity_lines": [ 14.766, 14.987291, 14.651751, 14.066987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }