{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec06cd8c-0b50-464e-8c13-4e0924deae52", "symbol": "FBRT", "name": "Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.29, "architecture_energy": 45.082, "architecture_maturity": 60.764, "architecture_confidence": 90.967, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.32, "rotation_up": 18.72, "upward_expansion": 5.99, "deceleration": 50.66, "rotation_down": 57.65, "downward_expansion": 79.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.849333, 7.952657, 8.194964, 8.369368 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.91, "trend_reference": 8.675243, "distance_from_trend": -0.08821, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.977382, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.12346, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204682, "excess_performance": -0.330307, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08821, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207207, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241235, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204682, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.777929, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6833458, "relative_activity": 1.356377, "balance": 0.777929, "dry_up": 1.266398, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059849, "annualized_volatility": 0.284124, "from_high_reference": -0.268841, "from_low_reference": 0.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.675243, "fair_value_reference": 9.977382, "structural_low": 7.345, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -6.6e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039623, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.07601, "worst_return": -0.066208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04535, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.031241, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.156633, "worst_return": -0.071623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004866, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.016145, "worst_return": -0.006412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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10.039472, "relative_strength": -22.805957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.500728, "energy": 48.666864, "activity_lines": [ 8.096128, 8.20601, 8.432994, 8.620598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.16, "volume": 4593260, "typical_volume": 5044414.0, "trend": 8.878901, "fair_value": 10.024967, "relative_strength": -20.332015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.414653, "energy": 45.011412, "activity_lines": [ 8.110811, 8.173857, 8.394183, 8.570256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.81, "volume": 5809806, "typical_volume": 4997557.15, "trend": 8.810551, "fair_value": 10.008077, "relative_strength": -22.805449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.574206, "energy": 48.14525, "activity_lines": [ 8.008144, 8.091013, 8.325657, 8.501295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.59, "volume": 8284032, "typical_volume": 5114363.25, "trend": 8.734307, "fair_value": 9.992315, "relative_strength": -25.224978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.012226, "energy": 52.833124, "activity_lines": [ 7.86, 7.986591, 8.242441, 8.422549 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.91, "volume": 6833458, "typical_volume": 5038021.15, "trend": 8.675243, "fair_value": 9.977382, "relative_strength": -24.12346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.289689, "energy": 45.081891, "activity_lines": [ 7.849333, 7.952657, 8.194964, 8.369368 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }