{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec0c1801-edf4-49a1-9562-64cf0c960b8c", "symbol": "HABA", "name": "Hamborner REIT AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.432, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.402, "architecture_energy": 24.112, "architecture_maturity": 27.563, "architecture_confidence": 62.235, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.88, "rotation_up": 16.3, "upward_expansion": 21.25, "deceleration": 58.19, "rotation_down": 55.97, "downward_expansion": 39.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.399333, 4.431091, 4.483288, 4.4553 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.36, "trend_reference": 4.419719, "distance_from_trend": -0.013512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.092481, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143836, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.047788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.015155, "excess_performance": -0.079795, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013512, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021968, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.143836, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035947, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064089, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015155, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.718834, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 699735, "relative_activity": 1.397076, "balance": 0.718834, "dry_up": 0.787652, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03602, "annualized_volatility": 0.169771, "from_high_reference": -0.201477, "from_low_reference": 0.107086 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.419719, "fair_value_reference": 5.092481, "structural_low": 3.965937, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.0046, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.040917, "worst_return": -0.021205, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004614, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066481, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.049947, "worst_return": -0.088028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.039275, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.116709, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.022742, "worst_return": -0.084045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.163886, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.186178, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.037104, "worst_return": -0.241905, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.033123, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02946, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014354, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019247, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028881, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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21.594281, "activity_lines": [ 4.491333, 4.552954, 4.496208, 4.447697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.43, "volume": 242006, "typical_volume": 655912.65, "trend": 4.379264, "fair_value": 5.113262, "relative_strength": -6.91179, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.643557, "energy": 20.708997, "activity_lines": [ 4.463333, 4.527303, 4.495338, 4.451839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.465, "volume": 327717, "typical_volume": 575081.85, "trend": 4.390826, "fair_value": 5.108203, "relative_strength": -4.898475, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.646814, "energy": 18.877176, "activity_lines": [ 4.455667, 4.508718, 4.49838, 4.45737 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.43, "volume": 206310, "typical_volume": 525555.15, "trend": 4.403375, "fair_value": 5.103225, "relative_strength": -6.271943, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.985054, "energy": 11.715752, "activity_lines": [ 4.446333, 4.486183, 4.497865, 4.459898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.385, "volume": 344241, "typical_volume": 501736.0, "trend": 4.412886, "fair_value": 5.09801, "relative_strength": -8.67923, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.569445, "energy": 11.039834, "activity_lines": [ 4.425333, 4.458263, 4.492128, 4.458712 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.36, "volume": 699735, "typical_volume": 500856.85, "trend": 4.419719, "fair_value": 5.092481, "relative_strength": -11.047788, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.4024, "energy": 24.111594, "activity_lines": [ 4.399333, 4.431091, 4.483288, 4.4553 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }