{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec119a20-b8ed-46c9-9dfe-c97fa7e318cf", "symbol": "002431", "name": "Palm Eco-Town Development Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.305, "architecture_energy": 63.889, "architecture_maturity": 75.718, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 29.76, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 53.41, "rotation_down": 53.41, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.310667, 1.331455, 1.512952, 1.762796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.32, "trend_reference": 2.076333, "distance_from_trend": -0.364264, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.197179, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.39923, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.943365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.494253, "excess_performance": -0.501653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.364264, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161755, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.39923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.439434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017594, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.494253, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.392499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99060784, "relative_activity": 0.601117, "balance": 0.392499, "dry_up": 0.6803, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118298, "annualized_volatility": 0.447544, "from_high_reference": -0.611765, "from_low_reference": 0.118644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.076333, "fair_value_reference": 2.197179, "structural_low": 1.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": 0.014665, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.247475, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.020325, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.03715, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.35443, "worst_return": -0.20603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018334, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016702, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.234375, "worst_return": -0.190871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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89080403, "typical_volume": 170447520.5, "trend": 2.112, "fair_value": 2.206474, "relative_strength": -41.276754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.87675, "energy": 64.906317, "activity_lines": [ 1.310667, 1.346545, 1.562286, 1.813892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.32, "volume": 99060784, "typical_volume": 164794452.15, "trend": 2.076333, "fair_value": 2.197179, "relative_strength": -43.943365, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.304512, "energy": 63.889479, "activity_lines": [ 1.310667, 1.331455, 1.512952, 1.762796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }