{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec135c11-90c5-4b91-b550-9b8a52de4684", "symbol": "002672", "name": "Dongjiang Environmental Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.646, "architecture_energy": 48.826, "architecture_maturity": 90.079, "architecture_confidence": 91.644, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 7.8, "deceleration": 60.77, "rotation_down": 49.61, "downward_expansion": 81.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.402667, 3.417636, 3.617905, 3.859419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.52, "trend_reference": 4.164, "distance_from_trend": -0.154659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.534359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.223705, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.233217, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.265136, "excess_performance": -0.272535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.154659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11209, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.223705, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153959, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242332, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001412, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.265136, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.271048, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56760834, "relative_activity": 1.17666, "balance": 0.271048, "dry_up": 1.15943, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090691, "annualized_volatility": 0.349639, "from_high_reference": -0.382456, "from_low_reference": 0.154098 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.164, "fair_value_reference": 4.534359, "structural_low": 3.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.007993, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.01201, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.264881, "worst_return": -0.170626, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.062774, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.030381, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.180556, "worst_return": -0.271255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.04824, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.06338, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.199519, "worst_return": -0.155272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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3.944286, 4.155914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.41, "volume": 77139450, "typical_volume": 50181547.5, "trend": 4.350333, "fair_value": 4.599359, "relative_strength": -33.232012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.980034, "energy": 75.828808, "activity_lines": [ 3.454667, 3.566, 3.867714, 4.091677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.34, "volume": 63867881, "typical_volume": 50321332.75, "trend": 4.302667, "fair_value": 4.582628, "relative_strength": -27.319579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.433128, "energy": 67.754196, "activity_lines": [ 3.411333, 3.498182, 3.789952, 4.026495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.21, "volume": 62233184, "typical_volume": 48861719.6, "trend": 4.246333, "fair_value": 4.565385, "relative_strength": -29.684168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.077214, "energy": 65.042073, "activity_lines": [ 3.339333, 3.426182, 3.707333, 3.956 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.43, "volume": 40856895, "typical_volume": 47643803.55, "trend": 4.200667, "fair_value": 4.549679, "relative_strength": -23.014314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.471033, "energy": 56.789421, "activity_lines": [ 3.354, 3.409818, 3.654571, 3.903333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.52, "volume": 56760834, "typical_volume": 48238960.45, "trend": 4.164, "fair_value": 4.534359, "relative_strength": -24.233217, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.645977, "energy": 48.825559, "activity_lines": [ 3.402667, 3.417636, 3.617905, 3.859419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }