{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec163bdb-d669-44e3-890c-6134780bf0d1", "symbol": "NORB-B", "name": "Nordisk Bergteknik AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.682, "architecture_energy": 27.544, "architecture_maturity": 57.022, "architecture_confidence": 75.794, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.36, "rotation_up": 22.94, "upward_expansion": 2.7, "deceleration": 59.23, "rotation_down": 41.54, "downward_expansion": 73.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.006667, 11.029091, 11.158571, 11.393656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.25, "trend_reference": 11.916667, "distance_from_trend": -0.055944, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.630449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.231056, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.132602, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.216028, "excess_performance": -0.277522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055944, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.231056, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079755, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181326, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004622, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.216028, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.019348, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32267, "relative_activity": 0.286667, "balance": 2.019348, "dry_up": 1.291192, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069402, "annualized_volatility": 0.289585, "from_high_reference": -0.301242, "from_low_reference": 0.119403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.916667, "fair_value_reference": 14.630449, "structural_low": 10.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.013815, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.012313, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.347962, "worst_return": -0.483401, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.104803, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.133401, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.188679, "worst_return": -0.44894, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.109628, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.152948, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.135849, "worst_return": -0.381118, "sufficient": false 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11.678095, 12.114301 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 11.5, "volume": 30620, "typical_volume": 171950.75, "trend": 12.588333, "fair_value": 15.611538, "relative_strength": -14.89355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.50467, "energy": 28.626595, "activity_lines": [ 11.473333, 11.407273, 11.61119, 12.035484 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.7, "volume": 33891, "typical_volume": 134473.75, "trend": 12.481667, "fair_value": 15.504487, "relative_strength": -14.855623, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.548479, "energy": 20.513781, "activity_lines": [ 11.58, 11.46, 11.572619, 11.978172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.65, "volume": 15224, "typical_volume": 123696.35, "trend": 12.353333, "fair_value": 15.36282, "relative_strength": -21.540875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.14549, "energy": 37.343999, "activity_lines": [ 11.296667, 11.318182, 11.448095, 11.86 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.0, "volume": 72951, "typical_volume": 117704.35, "trend": 12.281667, "fair_value": 15.2375, "relative_strength": -20.811275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.92666, "energy": 38.702873, "activity_lines": [ 11.166667, 11.257273, 11.374524, 11.772688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.9, "volume": 20958, "typical_volume": 113314.75, "trend": 12.208333, "fair_value": 15.117628, "relative_strength": -19.326697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.502861, "energy": 42.592639, "activity_lines": [ 11.023333, 11.186364, 11.30619, 11.683548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.2, "volume": 118375, "typical_volume": 109791.6, "trend": 12.155, "fair_value": 14.994551, "relative_strength": -15.795036, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.390391, "energy": 41.134181, "activity_lines": [ 11.04, 11.180909, 11.280476, 11.618495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.25, "volume": 184073, "typical_volume": 108260.05, "trend": 12.051667, "fair_value": 14.864103, "relative_strength": -23.693271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.321822, "energy": 54.272113, "activity_lines": [ 10.76, 11.001818, 11.17119, 11.495591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.2, "volume": 246626, "typical_volume": 114826.25, "trend": 11.978333, "fair_value": 14.74359, "relative_strength": -17.363361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.195318, "energy": 34.393927, "activity_lines": [ 10.893333, 11.010909, 11.16119, 11.440645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.25, "volume": 32267, "typical_volume": 112559.0, "trend": 11.916667, "fair_value": 14.630449, "relative_strength": -18.132602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.682044, "energy": 27.543619, "activity_lines": [ 11.006667, 11.029091, 11.158571, 11.393656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }