{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec190a1f-9358-4f3d-954c-a952586f5d83", "symbol": "BNL", "name": "Blue Star Helium Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.026, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.3, "architecture_energy": 11.532, "architecture_maturity": 30.808, "architecture_confidence": 41.703, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.57, "rotation_up": 30.85, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 48.03, "rotation_down": 31.99, "downward_expansion": 35.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0056, 0.005518, 0.006021, 0.006238 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.0062, "distance_from_trend": -0.032258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.009037, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.336042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.338835, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.2, "excess_performance": 0.136294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024789, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.336042, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014819, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191084, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.2, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.946237, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51040104, "relative_activity": 0.707415, "balance": 1.946237, "dry_up": 0.499137, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.224359, "annualized_volatility": 1.014338, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0062, "fair_value_reference": 0.009037, "structural_low": 0.004, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.018008, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.047619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.322581, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.268592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.380952, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.225806, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.266437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.261905, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.220832, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.741935, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.32, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.3, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.4375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.555556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", 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"rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.677732, "energy": 47.960351, "activity_lines": [ 0.0052, 0.005764, 0.006443, 0.00638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 56609420, "typical_volume": 83721578.7, "trend": 0.006183, "fair_value": 0.009489, "relative_strength": -7.011602, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.170203, "energy": 36.700099, "activity_lines": [ 0.0054, 0.005736, 0.006374, 0.006367 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.005, "volume": 13693678, "typical_volume": 83336201.5, "trend": 0.00615, "fair_value": 0.009316, "relative_strength": -21.806843, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.37936, "energy": 34.888377, "activity_lines": [ 0.005267, 0.005545, 0.006205, 0.00629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0055, "volume": 22707924, "typical_volume": 80605796.8, "trend": 0.006167, "fair_value": 0.009171, "relative_strength": -15.76922, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.339428, "energy": 22.211951, "activity_lines": [ 0.005367, 0.005473, 0.006088, 0.006248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 51040104, "typical_volume": 72150123.6, "trend": 0.0062, "fair_value": 0.009037, "relative_strength": -10.338835, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.300369, "energy": 11.5321, "activity_lines": [ 0.0056, 0.005518, 0.006021, 0.006238 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }