{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec1aa32c-3622-47b5-b84b-e00193cc9e03", "symbol": "GCAD", "name": "GABELLI ETFS TR COMMERCIAL AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.962, "architecture_energy": 30.712, "architecture_maturity": 39.319, "architecture_confidence": 53.871, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.75, "rotation_up": 41.9, "upward_expansion": 69.71, "deceleration": 68.5, "rotation_down": 24.07, "downward_expansion": 7.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.579627, 55.542707, 54.598831, 53.938323 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 56.4736, "trend_reference": 53.361387, "distance_from_trend": 0.058323, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.189168, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.51855, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.658302, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066079, "excess_performance": -0.059546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058323, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.51855, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012679, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016583, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008855, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066079, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.314914, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29454, "relative_activity": 0.832729, "balance": 1.314914, "dry_up": 1.156608, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049376, "annualized_volatility": 0.21708, "from_high_reference": -0.044602, "from_low_reference": 0.371997 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.361387, "fair_value_reference": 37.189168, "structural_low": 47.77, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.010441, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.005824, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.148475, "worst_return": -0.044731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.021737, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.021149, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.262294, "worst_return": -0.044614, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.136465, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.087751, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.246896, "worst_return": 0.064437, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 41783, "typical_volume": 33057.25, "trend": 52.370096, "fair_value": 36.375299, "relative_strength": 2.234613, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.040637, "energy": 50.011743, "activity_lines": [ 55.755787, 55.074347, 53.725315, 53.267441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.7478, "volume": 33137, "typical_volume": 34402.15, "trend": 52.615624, "fair_value": 36.566374, "relative_strength": 1.242755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.411717, "energy": 33.906997, "activity_lines": [ 55.07562, 54.982035, 53.795091, 53.356325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.28, "volume": 32761, "typical_volume": 33260.75, "trend": 52.9234, "fair_value": 36.774476, "relative_strength": 6.38398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.868243, "energy": 36.69964, "activity_lines": [ 55.375, 55.318707, 54.110875, 53.592736 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.98, "volume": 68287, "typical_volume": 34663.4, "trend": 53.1736, "fair_value": 36.977406, "relative_strength": 2.637238, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.140422, "energy": 22.60562, "activity_lines": [ 55.209713, 55.318289, 54.292145, 53.72542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.4736, "volume": 29454, "typical_volume": 35370.45, "trend": 53.361387, "fair_value": 37.189168, "relative_strength": 1.658302, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.962237, "energy": 30.712043, "activity_lines": [ 55.579627, 55.542707, 54.598831, 53.938323 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }