{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec1e4628-4821-41a3-9468-8cc36fcc63d6", "symbol": "UUU", "name": "3U Holding AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.071, "architecture_energy": 68.869, "architecture_maturity": 19.773, "architecture_confidence": 85.606, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.52, "rotation_up": 10.84, "upward_expansion": 14.04, "deceleration": 37.97, "rotation_down": 70.96, "downward_expansion": 87.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.021667, 1.046182, 1.076405, 1.088473 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.978, "trend_reference": 1.1141, "distance_from_trend": -0.122161, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.608555, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.392001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.39113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142105, "excess_performance": -0.206745, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034575, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.392001, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11523, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.397218, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115137, "relative_activity": 4.286592, "balance": 0.397218, "dry_up": 1.58498, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066462, "annualized_volatility": 0.285511, "from_high_reference": -0.405471, "from_low_reference": 0.067686 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.1141, "fair_value_reference": 1.608555, "structural_low": 0.916, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.012691, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.029511, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.183486, "worst_return": -0.154135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.067224, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.079548, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.18662, "worst_return": -0.167644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065623, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.17237, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.012309, "worst_return": -0.299703, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074502, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.083149, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.137349, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.214789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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45.780273, "activity_lines": [ 1.081333, 1.096091, 1.105071, 1.113548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.04, "volume": 8802, "typical_volume": 25640.35, "trend": 1.123, "fair_value": 1.63706, "relative_strength": -19.483215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.912742, "energy": 58.399228, "activity_lines": [ 1.066333, 1.083727, 1.098714, 1.108075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.07, "volume": 30781, "typical_volume": 25189.7, "trend": 1.123, "fair_value": 1.627852, "relative_strength": -17.297077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.863177, "energy": 46.950462, "activity_lines": [ 1.065667, 1.078909, 1.095452, 1.104656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.015, "volume": 15569, "typical_volume": 23252.4, "trend": 1.120833, "fair_value": 1.618541, "relative_strength": -22.389786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.262113, "energy": 55.665796, "activity_lines": [ 1.047667, 1.065273, 1.087476, 1.097688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.978, "volume": 115137, "typical_volume": 26859.8, "trend": 1.1141, "fair_value": 1.608555, "relative_strength": -26.39113, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.070732, "energy": 68.86863, "activity_lines": [ 1.021667, 1.046182, 1.076405, 1.088473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }