{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec324976-33d5-48b8-9e38-53c138c6988c", "symbol": "E4C", "name": "ecotel communication ag", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.018, "architecture_energy": 58.279, "architecture_maturity": 97.784, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.6, "rotation_up": 27.63, "upward_expansion": 10.6, "deceleration": 47.79, "rotation_down": 50.17, "downward_expansion": 81.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.043333, 7.084545, 7.306429, 7.590108 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.1, "trend_reference": 8.295, "distance_from_trend": -0.144063, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.689805, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.440496, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.670758, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.387931, "excess_performance": -0.452571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144063, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165353, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.440496, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356708, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.387931, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.188167, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 240, "relative_activity": 0.084522, "balance": 0.188167, "dry_up": 0.122645, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042795, "annualized_volatility": 0.479141, "from_high_reference": -0.538961, "from_low_reference": 0.154472 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.295, "fair_value_reference": 12.689805, "structural_low": 6.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.652174, "median_excess_return": -0.033854, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.159091, "worst_return": -0.301587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.073757, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.102395, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.13738, "worst_return": -0.239837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.048128, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.117837, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.072523, "worst_return": -0.382114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.423571, 7.893871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3384.6, "trend": 8.616667, "fair_value": 12.81924, "relative_strength": -35.197054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.851911, "energy": 81.976334, "activity_lines": [ 6.996667, 7.160909, 7.369048, 7.779032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.05, "volume": 760, "typical_volume": 3284.5, "trend": 8.461667, "fair_value": 12.751027, "relative_strength": -35.224997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.09565, "energy": 63.995888, "activity_lines": [ 7.003333, 7.111818, 7.330476, 7.677957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.1, "volume": 240, "typical_volume": 2839.5, "trend": 8.295, "fair_value": 12.689805, "relative_strength": -35.670758, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.017932, "energy": 58.278943, "activity_lines": [ 7.043333, 7.084545, 7.306429, 7.590108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }