{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec34473a-ac62-48e7-a576-39fcd0ef8f5a", "symbol": "TYM", "name": "Tertiary Minerals plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.437, "architecture_energy": 18.941, "architecture_maturity": 64.136, "architecture_confidence": 63.594, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.64, "rotation_up": 29.64, "upward_expansion": 17.95, "deceleration": 46.21, "rotation_down": 20.4, "downward_expansion": 51.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.000662, 0.000629, 0.000652, 0.000703 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.00065, "trend_reference": 0.000776, "distance_from_trend": -0.162371, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.000784, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.134391, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.35, "excess_performance": -0.401235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.162371, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016594, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171095, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.35, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.012593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 185094059, "relative_activity": 1.097079, "balance": 1.012593, "dry_up": 1.593969, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.211834, "annualized_volatility": 0.753887, "from_high_reference": -0.535714, "from_low_reference": 1.03125 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.000776, "fair_value_reference": 0.000784, "structural_low": 0.0005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.01996, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.034612, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.608696, "worst_return": -0.38, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.091263, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.712329, "worst_return": -0.3125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.213978, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.21972, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145833, "worst_return": -0.409091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"gate": "down", "direction": -58.75193, "energy": 51.295899, "activity_lines": [ 0.00058, 0.000593, 0.000675, 0.000731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.00065, "volume": 204575941, "typical_volume": 144388178.6, "trend": 0.000771, "fair_value": 0.000789, "relative_strength": -5.97096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.491512, "energy": 28.992231, "activity_lines": [ 0.000611, 0.000596, 0.000666, 0.000724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.00065, "volume": 320444865, "typical_volume": 151540871.65, "trend": 0.000775, "fair_value": 0.000788, "relative_strength": -7.644583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.740214, "energy": 21.234261, "activity_lines": [ 0.000631, 0.000602, 0.000658, 0.000716 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0007, "volume": 365593949, "typical_volume": 164465223.45, "trend": 0.000779, "fair_value": 0.000786, "relative_strength": -2.360456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.828118, "energy": 21.166432, "activity_lines": [ 0.000661, 0.00062, 0.000657, 0.000711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00065, "volume": 185094059, "typical_volume": 168715412.5, "trend": 0.000776, "fair_value": 0.000784, "relative_strength": -10.134391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.437106, "energy": 18.940898, "activity_lines": [ 0.000662, 0.000629, 0.000652, 0.000703 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }