{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec35c296-bd41-4822-9484-2c362db611b9", "symbol": "UC84", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Liquid Corp UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.32, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.765, "architecture_energy": 72.011, "architecture_maturity": 3.346, "architecture_confidence": 77.652, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.25, "rotation_up": 8.14, "upward_expansion": 14.67, "deceleration": 38.06, "rotation_down": 78.35, "downward_expansion": 90.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1084.65, 1093.9, 1096.555952, 1097.954829 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1083.0, "trend_reference": 1101.531482, "distance_from_trend": -0.016823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1140.064867, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050054, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.024817, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031457, "excess_performance": -0.082692, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.016823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050054, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002506, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031457, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.495416, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7766, "relative_activity": 0.820323, "balance": 0.495416, "dry_up": 1.015026, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010565, "annualized_volatility": 0.070717, "from_high_reference": -0.288948, "from_low_reference": 0.005104 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1101.531482, "fair_value_reference": 1140.064867, "structural_low": 1077.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.000618, "positive_rate": 0.484848, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": 0.003505, "regime_survival": 0.787879, "best_return": 0.056527, "worst_return": -0.024129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.002553, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.005197, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.027943, "worst_return": -0.040544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010111, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011926, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.028352, "worst_return": -0.024921, "sufficient": true 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015016, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012062, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01024, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.245179, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028715, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01056, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1111.147949, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4884.5, "trend": 1178.184273, "fair_value": 1277.765457, "relative_strength": -4.627608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.958904, "energy": 17.417545, "activity_lines": [ 1102.366667, 1104.445455, 1101.097619, 1102.094855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1089.0, "volume": 10590, "typical_volume": 9318.5, "trend": 1104.692908, "fair_value": 1140.619456, "relative_strength": -9.861386, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.665286, "energy": 40.088135, "activity_lines": [ 1096.0, 1101.781818, 1100.017857, 1101.011607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1077.5, "volume": 10590, "typical_volume": 9353.8, "trend": 1103.187146, "fair_value": 1140.318931, "relative_strength": -11.535436, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.597976, "energy": 58.551596, "activity_lines": [ 1087.8, 1097.2, 1097.965476, 1099.257226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1083.0, "volume": 7766, "typical_volume": 9467.0, "trend": 1101.531482, "fair_value": 1140.064867, "relative_strength": -11.024817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.764623, "energy": 72.010724, "activity_lines": [ 1084.65, 1093.9, 1096.555952, 1097.954829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }