{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec375bda-18ec-4c52-a75a-0d1b2c7c883b", "symbol": "300423", "name": "Sunfly Intelligent Technology Co., LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.403, "architecture_energy": 62.411, "architecture_maturity": 89.611, "architecture_confidence": 94.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 28.66, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.8, "rotation_down": 50.73, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.515333, 5.582727, 6.138238, 6.804645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.66, "trend_reference": 7.645, "distance_from_trend": -0.259647, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.345833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.229495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.670885, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.305521, "excess_performance": -0.312921, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.259647, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101469, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.229495, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.278694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.286709, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305521, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.293351, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59507297, "relative_activity": 1.23459, "balance": 0.293351, "dry_up": 1.163747, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096222, "annualized_volatility": 0.501473, "from_high_reference": -0.5299, "from_low_reference": 0.164609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.645, "fair_value_reference": 7.345833, "structural_low": 4.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.018778, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.013226, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.231358, "worst_return": -0.20522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.111725, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.070681, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.627184, "worst_return": -0.222054, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.074827, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.006485, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.380583, "worst_return": -0.316976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 5.459333, 5.67, 6.398667, 7.085548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.57, "volume": 48030029, "typical_volume": 53091794.3, "trend": 7.735667, "fair_value": 7.381282, "relative_strength": -26.582001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.697382, "energy": 64.920183, "activity_lines": [ 5.475333, 5.604182, 6.252952, 6.938559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.66, "volume": 59507297, "typical_volume": 48200034.4, "trend": 7.645, "fair_value": 7.345833, "relative_strength": -28.670885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.402856, "energy": 62.410804, "activity_lines": [ 5.515333, 5.582727, 6.138238, 6.804645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }