{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec3a332d-563a-4f36-8adb-641aadba52ad", "symbol": "USIM3", "name": "Usinas Sider\u00fargicas de Minas Gerais S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.388, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.317, "architecture_energy": 60.62, "architecture_maturity": 14.717, "architecture_confidence": 83.699, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.15, "rotation_up": 14.21, "upward_expansion": 26.51, "deceleration": 50.67, "rotation_down": 74.55, "downward_expansion": 56.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.826, 7.337636, 7.924, 7.754516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.25, "trend_reference": 7.431333, "distance_from_trend": -0.158967, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.536393, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.227478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.012966, "excess_performance": 0.070014, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158967, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110038, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.402099, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.052275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.412982, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.524313, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3473500, "relative_activity": 1.525519, "balance": 0.524313, "dry_up": 1.233053, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139692, "annualized_volatility": 0.50143, "from_high_reference": -0.392023, "from_low_reference": 0.513317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.431333, "fair_value_reference": 6.536393, "structural_low": 5.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.087075, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020833, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.161455, "worst_return": -0.146119, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.220284, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.179315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.186395, "worst_return": -0.254174, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.169684, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1459, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.148893, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.122807, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.253898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.178891, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.18239, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.822949, "volume": 1008200, "typical_volume": 1750555.0, "trend": 7.080136, "fair_value": 10.635077, "relative_strength": -9.030153, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.57533, "energy": 40.740447, 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7.871914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.39, "volume": 2006600, "typical_volume": 2196780.0, "trend": 7.365667, "fair_value": 6.539889, "relative_strength": 12.143371, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.470989, "energy": 26.394061, "activity_lines": [ 7.656667, 8.279273, 8.249524, 7.876882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.58, "volume": 2134300, "typical_volume": 2193685.0, "trend": 7.421667, "fair_value": 6.543811, "relative_strength": 14.140174, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.035025, "energy": 22.798231, "activity_lines": [ 7.586667, 8.080182, 8.220952, 7.89071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.5, "volume": 3615900, "typical_volume": 2243155.0, "trend": 7.439333, "fair_value": 6.540562, "relative_strength": -4.387987, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.631694, "energy": 40.914603, "activity_lines": [ 7.212, 7.702909, 8.084667, 7.831247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 3473500, "typical_volume": 2276930.0, "trend": 7.431333, "fair_value": 6.536393, "relative_strength": -5.227478, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.316765, "energy": 60.620054, "activity_lines": [ 6.826, 7.337636, 7.924, 7.754516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }