{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec3b8428-6d5b-46d6-8c56-0d0189a32159", "symbol": "PPLT", "name": "abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.99, "architecture_energy": 62.843, "architecture_maturity": 99.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.11, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.76, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 49.41, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 261.259337, 259.729093, 768.803859, 1365.90443 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 271.170013, "trend_reference": 2119.888331, "distance_from_trend": -0.872083, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1920.103395, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.858773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -88.885021, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.917924, "excess_performance": -0.863257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.872083, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.305366, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.858773, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.457372, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.88885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.928678, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.917924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.181754, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 362, "relative_activity": 0.394099, "balance": 0.181754, "dry_up": 3.610854, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.851816, "annualized_volatility": 3.299451, "from_high_reference": -0.939874, "from_low_reference": 0.089036 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2119.888331, "fair_value_reference": 1920.103395, "structural_low": 249.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": 0.016016, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.194969, "worst_return": -0.101268, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00593, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016001, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.118931, "worst_return": -0.126638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026218, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.061998, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.169241, "worst_return": -0.209521, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -89.538096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.526324, "energy": 66.9502, "activity_lines": [ 255.965332, 258.655272, 893.612001, 1492.595569 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 271.170013, "volume": 362, "typical_volume": 918.55, "trend": 2119.888331, "fair_value": 1920.103395, "relative_strength": -88.885021, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.990366, "energy": 62.842923, "activity_lines": [ 261.259337, 259.729093, 768.803859, 1365.90443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }