{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec3f38fd-9c18-43fa-b770-3a3ae61ab46b", "symbol": "EXH6", "name": "iShares STOXX Europe 600 Media UCITS ETF (DE)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 66.178, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.518, "architecture_energy": 64.408, "architecture_maturity": 11.898, "architecture_confidence": 73.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.02, "rotation_up": 65.2, "upward_expansion": 85.05, "deceleration": 50.02, "rotation_down": 16.99, "downward_expansion": 11.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.284953, 32.897254, 32.304666, 31.698367 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.360001, "trend_reference": 31.272753, "distance_from_trend": 0.09872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.315931, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.027068, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.542655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11849, "excess_performance": 0.05385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09872, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013038, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.027068, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073439, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059644, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11849, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.853392, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5496, "relative_activity": 0.272469, "balance": 0.853392, "dry_up": 0.46931, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034893, "annualized_volatility": 0.227525, "from_high_reference": -0.046735, "from_low_reference": 0.27994 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.272753, "fair_value_reference": 35.315931, "structural_low": 26.844999, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.016562, "positive_rate": 0.657143, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -8.1e-05, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.070419, "worst_return": -0.119951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.051491, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003355, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.169829, "worst_return": -0.066008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032617, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.04202, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.225402, "worst_return": -0.164121, 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"activity_lines": [ 32.497758, 32.188806, 31.48112, 31.226098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.919998, "volume": 18153, "typical_volume": 21761.6, "trend": 31.340251, "fair_value": 35.248518, "relative_strength": -1.935369, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.26654, "energy": 61.453895, "activity_lines": [ 32.739252, 32.357577, 31.684893, 31.326009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.799999, "volume": 1075, "typical_volume": 21040.0, "trend": 31.310929, "fair_value": 35.265715, "relative_strength": -3.007712, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.328868, "energy": 71.097846, "activity_lines": [ 32.833983, 32.478984, 31.865238, 31.420187 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.535, "volume": 13142, "typical_volume": 20677.0, "trend": 31.272276, "fair_value": 35.284294, "relative_strength": -5.443907, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.975621, "energy": 56.590675, "activity_lines": [ 32.781961, 32.523119, 32.005369, 31.499159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.360001, "volume": 5496, "typical_volume": 20171.1, "trend": 31.272753, "fair_value": 35.315931, "relative_strength": -2.542655, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.518354, "energy": 64.407956, "activity_lines": [ 33.284953, 32.897254, 32.304666, 31.698367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }