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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.387, "architecture_energy": 75.357, "architecture_maturity": 70.39, "architecture_confidence": 72.156, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.54, "rotation_up": 71.27, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.6, "rotation_down": 22.73, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.456667, 120.429455, 118.110714, 115.864113 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 123.43, "trend_reference": 113.214423, "distance_from_trend": 0.090232, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 99.709964, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.23789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.700457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.12637, "excess_performance": -0.044522, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090232, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046936, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.23789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068541, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016919, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.996478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13206, "relative_activity": 1.600397, "balance": 1.996478, "dry_up": 2.220664, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01381, "annualized_volatility": 0.072716, "from_high_reference": -0.002021, "from_low_reference": 0.24173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 113.214423, "fair_value_reference": 99.709964, "structural_low": 105.389999, 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110.101527, "fair_value": 98.221019, "relative_strength": -2.336881, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.414704, "energy": 94.155212, "activity_lines": [ 117.755333, 116.596727, 113.833143, 112.240669 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 119.580002, "volume": 967, "typical_volume": 5120.0, "trend": 110.583442, "fair_value": 98.471004, "relative_strength": -4.658614, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.645698, "energy": 94.256924, "activity_lines": [ 118.491334, 117.364, 114.561476, 112.852184 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 120.0, "volume": 12853, "typical_volume": 5374.9, "trend": 111.103193, "fair_value": 98.728158, "relative_strength": -3.806221, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.051643, "energy": 93.250107, "activity_lines": [ 119.138667, 118.053637, 115.279572, 113.459704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 120.019997, "volume": 5626, "typical_volume": 5272.75, "trend": 111.622618, "fair_value": 98.968562, "relative_strength": -2.319423, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.046261, "energy": 88.946817, "activity_lines": [ 119.613333, 118.606545, 115.950666, 114.034981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.059998, "volume": 11029, "typical_volume": 5680.7, "trend": 112.178696, "fair_value": 99.208313, "relative_strength": -1.2385, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.047362, "energy": 85.885014, "activity_lines": [ 120.242665, 119.219818, 116.670857, 114.643844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 120.370003, "volume": 43436, "typical_volume": 7633.3, "trend": 112.70714, "fair_value": 99.449146, "relative_strength": -2.369526, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.999713, "energy": 67.50984, "activity_lines": [ 120.382, 119.585636, 117.272952, 115.172316 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.43, "volume": 13206, "typical_volume": 8251.7, "trend": 113.214423, "fair_value": 99.709964, "relative_strength": -2.700457, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.386706, "energy": 75.357079, "activity_lines": [ 121.456667, 120.429455, 118.110714, 115.864113 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }