{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec433207-9f69-4d7a-a7f4-027be68c847f", "symbol": "603165", "name": "Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.04, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.932, "architecture_energy": 37.288, "architecture_maturity": 9.632, "architecture_confidence": 53.772, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.29, "rotation_up": 21.03, "upward_expansion": 13.88, "deceleration": 49.58, "rotation_down": 54.18, "downward_expansion": 50.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.433333, 13.716495, 14.541119, 14.685139 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.97, "trend_reference": 14.634385, "distance_from_trend": -0.045399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.625651, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.951054, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.031155, "excess_performance": 0.012049, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045399, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037346, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201653, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316546, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029511, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228435, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031155, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.308468, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24481373, "relative_activity": 0.555873, "balance": 0.308468, "dry_up": 0.609396, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11472, "annualized_volatility": 0.442613, "from_high_reference": -0.265777, "from_low_reference": 0.274467 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.634385, "fair_value_reference": 11.625651, "structural_low": 11.85, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.015098, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.035915, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.19332, "worst_return": -0.084957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.090694, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.009714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195758, "worst_return": -0.183792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.224178, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.018093, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.293638, "worst_return": -0.145358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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13.75, "volume": 39114689, "typical_volume": 51391312.7, "trend": 14.499846, "fair_value": 11.638349, "relative_strength": 0.614839, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.687044, "energy": 26.391427, "activity_lines": [ 14.205333, 14.836929, 15.231504, 15.01007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.18, "volume": 28640400, "typical_volume": 50995152.7, "trend": 14.53713, "fair_value": 11.634685, "relative_strength": 2.14942, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.087672, "energy": 43.253601, "activity_lines": [ 13.773333, 14.424433, 15.043896, 14.924918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.34, "volume": 32357868, "typical_volume": 50921958.6, "trend": 14.539918, "fair_value": 11.623987, "relative_strength": -5.703293, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.344752, "energy": 55.394255, "activity_lines": [ 13.204667, 13.935782, 14.77805, 14.783168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.63, "volume": 21874751, "typical_volume": 47378743.75, "trend": 14.579536, "fair_value": 11.623262, "relative_strength": 3.48996, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.643016, "energy": 47.334793, "activity_lines": [ 13.283333, 13.767916, 14.641013, 14.724463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.97, "volume": 24481373, "typical_volume": 44041335.2, "trend": 14.634385, "fair_value": 11.625651, "relative_strength": 2.951054, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.932358, "energy": 37.28751, "activity_lines": [ 13.433333, 13.716495, 14.541119, 14.685139 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }