{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec4f3549-a28f-49be-9057-a18358e0ac13", "symbol": "002315", "name": "Focus Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.825, "architecture_energy": 27.025, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.132, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.12, "rotation_up": 27.7, "upward_expansion": 17.01, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 28.95, "downward_expansion": 64.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.779333, 25.021818, 26.257079, 27.772915 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.299999, "trend_reference": 30.48087, "distance_from_trend": -0.104356, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.62353, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011712, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.027955, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.302549, "excess_performance": -0.309948, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104356, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085518, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011712, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19028, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036952, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302549, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.923622, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71784215, "relative_activity": 1.942487, "balance": 0.923622, "dry_up": 1.594548, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084446, "annualized_volatility": 0.387332, "from_high_reference": -0.429138, "from_low_reference": 0.238657 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.48087, "fair_value_reference": 27.62353, "structural_low": 22.040001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.008968, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.015733, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.330791, "worst_return": -0.14952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03409, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.025106, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.565201, "worst_return": -0.229192, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020447, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104872, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.823838, "worst_return": -0.234366, "sufficient": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.292755, "energy": 64.398508, "activity_lines": [ 23.867333, 24.618909, 26.856308, 28.744594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.57, "volume": 52793521, "typical_volume": 34597553.45, "trend": 30.908058, "fair_value": 27.600148, "relative_strength": -29.361575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.040173, "energy": 60.51173, "activity_lines": [ 23.759333, 24.223818, 26.396078, 28.2528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.889999, "volume": 57678843, "typical_volume": 35606495.2, "trend": 30.720155, "fair_value": 27.607382, "relative_strength": -17.24805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.842482, "energy": 41.750206, "activity_lines": [ 24.839999, 24.564909, 26.295983, 27.99357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.299999, "volume": 71784215, "typical_volume": 36954805.6, "trend": 30.48087, "fair_value": 27.62353, "relative_strength": -19.027955, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.825311, "energy": 27.025227, "activity_lines": [ 25.779333, 25.021818, 26.257079, 27.772915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }