{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec51e3d3-495f-4ded-8557-f5beb8e2b9cb", "symbol": "SLVS", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Short Silver ETC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.681, "architecture_energy": 23.284, "architecture_maturity": 27.491, "architecture_confidence": 50.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.04, "rotation_up": 54.59, "upward_expansion": 44.86, "deceleration": 41.7, "rotation_down": 21.21, "downward_expansion": 16.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.755833, 2.703145, 2.391729, 2.359906 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.1875, "trend_reference": 2.680683, "distance_from_trend": -0.183977, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 299.445967, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.992695, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -91.371329, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.208145, "excess_performance": -0.282844, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.743263, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.992695, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002087, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.913713, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053908, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.208145, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.899341, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17744, "relative_activity": 0.066153, "balance": 0.899341, "dry_up": 0.078247, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.245064, "annualized_volatility": 1.499963, "from_high_reference": -0.978624, "from_low_reference": 0.985027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.680683, "fair_value_reference": 299.445967, "structural_low": 1.102, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.212068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.195229, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.589587, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168823, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.983384, "energy": 18.395424, "activity_lines": [ 2.610533, 2.252855, 2.119195, 2.527158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.395, "volume": 1853, "typical_volume": 326264.15, "trend": 3.681267, "fair_value": 314.120246, "relative_strength": -88.916878, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 22.007675, "energy": 38.032377, "activity_lines": [ 2.946, 2.496218, 2.243764, 2.473754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.855, "volume": 62731, "typical_volume": 323153.4, "trend": 3.2441, "fair_value": 309.365008, "relative_strength": -90.152204, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.185063, "energy": 32.493558, "activity_lines": [ 2.983, 2.614945, 2.313143, 2.420446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.05, "volume": 1624, "typical_volume": 298376.6, "trend": 2.931767, "fair_value": 304.477483, "relative_strength": -88.826813, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.701904, "energy": 50.199573, "activity_lines": [ 3.035333, 2.751182, 2.397521, 2.407924 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.1875, "volume": 17744, "typical_volume": 268226.9, "trend": 2.680683, "fair_value": 299.445967, "relative_strength": -91.371329, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.681434, "energy": 23.284072, "activity_lines": [ 2.755833, 2.703145, 2.391729, 2.359906 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }