{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec561485-dab2-4706-8bed-d88ab075f99e", "symbol": "BIRLACORPN", "name": "Birla Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.284, "architecture_energy": 41.93, "architecture_maturity": 28.062, "architecture_confidence": 74.476, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.41, "rotation_up": 10.72, "upward_expansion": 16.23, "deceleration": 44.8, "rotation_down": 62.36, "downward_expansion": 75.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 930.713823, 949.707536, 960.633291, 954.739931 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 914.349976, "trend_reference": 963.264587, "distance_from_trend": -0.05078, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1221.234446, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.25129, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.460064, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151966, "excess_performance": -0.108257, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05078, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.25129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124601, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151966, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.320691, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 357557, "relative_activity": 0.786894, "balance": 1.320691, "dry_up": 1.631635, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062745, "annualized_volatility": 0.384412, "from_high_reference": -0.320741, "from_low_reference": 0.188085 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 963.264587, "fair_value_reference": 1221.234446, "structural_low": 769.599976, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.000863, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.016863, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.284486, "worst_return": -0.233145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.046554, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.061078, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.253839, "worst_return": -0.171571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090277, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.100737, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.324825, 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-0.057139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060512, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050351, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071006, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011776, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004046, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079033, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060687, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041324, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.134243, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091194, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1073.011108, "volume": 714264, "typical_volume": 708414.95, "trend": 1012.879722, "fair_value": 1012.321707, "relative_strength": 2.177108, 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.205481, "energy": 3.667916, "activity_lines": [ 971.943445, 975.647092, 969.324129, 963.672138 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 890.5, "volume": 1126041, "typical_volume": 477098.4, "trend": 968.002922, "fair_value": 1222.580933, "relative_strength": -14.617082, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.192584, "energy": 29.223832, "activity_lines": [ 944.003072, 959.458225, 964.100378, 958.201411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 914.349976, "volume": 357557, "typical_volume": 454390.05, "trend": 963.264587, "fair_value": 1221.234446, "relative_strength": -12.460064, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.28418, "energy": 41.930283, "activity_lines": [ 930.713823, 949.707536, 960.633291, 954.739931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }