{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec58c7aa-da48-473e-aa12-3d6475d59466", "symbol": "PSCU", "name": "INVESCO S&P SMALLCAP UTILITIES & COMMUNICATION SERVICES ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.216, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.356, "architecture_energy": 19.225, "architecture_maturity": 53.303, "architecture_confidence": 79.282, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.19, "rotation_up": 31.21, "upward_expansion": 50.78, "deceleration": 80.75, "rotation_down": 24.02, "downward_expansion": 24.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.517713, 64.6294, 64.669402, 63.817377 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 65.1299, "trend_reference": 62.454683, "distance_from_trend": 0.042835, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.877563, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165582, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.329807, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126308, "excess_performance": -0.061145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042835, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039263, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165582, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012702, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053298, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016881, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.398137, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6414, "relative_activity": 0.767207, "balance": 1.398137, "dry_up": 0.48701, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022931, "annualized_volatility": 0.149757, "from_high_reference": -0.025297, "from_low_reference": 0.21804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.454683, "fair_value_reference": 55.877563, "structural_low": 57.527785, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.001866, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001261, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.041915, "worst_return": -0.035147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.029003, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.047302, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051803, "worst_return": -0.049413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.036685, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.028275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132926, "worst_return": -0.066221, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"trend": 61.980661, "fair_value": 55.732498, "relative_strength": -2.11139, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.971862, "energy": 25.990837, "activity_lines": [ 64.549687, 64.662758, 64.515905, 63.488442 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.161, "volume": 2032, "typical_volume": 24841.45, "trend": 62.211739, "fair_value": 55.806509, "relative_strength": -2.036319, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.003076, "energy": 14.716834, "activity_lines": [ 64.324887, 64.557539, 64.559486, 63.629109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.1299, "volume": 6414, "typical_volume": 8360.2, "trend": 62.454683, "fair_value": 55.877563, "relative_strength": -5.329807, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.355845, "energy": 19.2251, "activity_lines": [ 64.517713, 64.6294, 64.669402, 63.817377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }