{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "ec5a190c-aae3-4b83-a748-266bec717766",
    "symbol": "HYBL",
    "name": "SPDR(R) BLACKSTONE HIGH INCOME ETF",
    "exchange": "CBOE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 72.577,
    "architecture_energy": 56.28,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.829,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.577,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.71,
        "rotation_up": 56.67,
        "upward_expansion": 81.18,
        "deceleration": 51.8,
        "rotation_down": 18.47,
        "downward_expansion": 10.18
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        27.830856,
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        27.778859,
        27.712062
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 27.945,
    "trend_reference": 27.658534,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.010357,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 25.591072,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.091982,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -9.528881,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.010183,
    "excess_performance": -0.115442,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010357,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003638,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.091982,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01519,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.095289,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.003168,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010183,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.324225,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 787032,
      "relative_activity": 1.441241,
      "balance": 1.324225,
      "dry_up": 0.983913,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.004768,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.032295,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001366,
      "from_low_reference": 0.041725
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 27.658534,
      "fair_value_reference": 25.591072,
      "structural_low": 27.12801,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.006972,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.003446,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.02864,
        "worst_return": 0.000592,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.032753,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.082168,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.064473,
        "worst_return": 0.017796,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.070223,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
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        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.055709,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.054033,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "end": "2023-10-13",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2023-11-10",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006429,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -6.210785,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 35.387525,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": -8.299042,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "fair_value": 25.447534,
        "relative_strength": -9.073273,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 618823.3,
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        "fair_value": 25.482988,
        "relative_strength": -7.243132,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.983199,
        "energy": 19.885088,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.749514,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.72557,
        "volume": 567390,
        "typical_volume": 590421.2,
        "trend": 27.646833,
        "fair_value": 25.518174,
        "relative_strength": -6.640543,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 33.395602,
        "energy": 18.493384,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.737196,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.82001,
        "volume": 444076,
        "typical_volume": 551645.8,
        "trend": 27.651896,
        "fair_value": 25.554377,
        "relative_strength": -7.060557,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.137951,
        "energy": 25.346232,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.76434,
          27.767158,
          27.753968,
          27.693152
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 27.945,
        "volume": 787032,
        "typical_volume": 546079.4,
        "trend": 27.658534,
        "fair_value": 25.591072,
        "relative_strength": -9.528881,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.577067,
        "energy": 56.27961,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}