{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec5a9178-75a3-415b-85f6-3dbfc473f14b", "symbol": "KSM-F52", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. -KSM ETF (4D) NASDAQ 100", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.718, "architecture_energy": 67.415, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.431, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 29.95, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 53.36, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 840.113333, 841.5, 21313.507143, 35132.689247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 850.6, "trend_reference": 50858.113333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983275, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65389.316667, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986992, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.794015, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98851, "excess_performance": -1.01741, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983275, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.336867, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 806.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.01995, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.002675, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.15154, "worst_return": -0.116936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.063996, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026974, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.210727, "worst_return": -0.066667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.164086, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.089863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169955, "worst_return": -0.020863, 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84.530117, "activity_lines": [ 843.926667, 9610.767273, 34266.358095, 45804.662796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 835.3, "volume": 8004, "typical_volume": 13532.2, "trend": 55967.386667, "fair_value": 66075.84359, "relative_strength": -98.902989, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.295486, "energy": 68.43794, "activity_lines": [ 840.26, 5222.343636, 29601.118571, 42081.507312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 831.2, "volume": 18251, "typical_volume": 13694.65, "trend": 53421.093333, "fair_value": 65734.184615, "relative_strength": -98.849977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.196363, "energy": 68.191213, "activity_lines": [ 836.793333, 2300.532727, 25282.558571, 38524.333978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 850.6, "volume": 39305, "typical_volume": 15133.05, "trend": 50858.113333, "fair_value": 65389.316667, "relative_strength": -98.794015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.718146, "energy": 67.415139, "activity_lines": [ 840.113333, 841.5, 21313.507143, 35132.689247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }