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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.971, "architecture_energy": 36.817, "architecture_maturity": 47.021, "architecture_confidence": 55.565, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.15, "rotation_up": 47.81, "upward_expansion": 75.25, "deceleration": 69.87, "rotation_down": 21.62, "downward_expansion": 4.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.426666, 57.866929, 54.356334, 52.481499 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.0, "trend_reference": 50.151522, "distance_from_trend": 0.196374, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 51.570764, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16345, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.943674, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.323918, "excess_performance": -0.117454, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.196374, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16345, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.325078, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039437, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.207248, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.323918, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.681413, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 131918350, "relative_activity": 0.664963, "balance": 2.681413, "dry_up": 1.065083, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127112, "annualized_volatility": 0.578631, "from_high_reference": -0.140401, "from_low_reference": 0.670876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.151522, "fair_value_reference": 51.570764, "structural_low": 42.694922, 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77.624102, "activity_lines": [ 60.333959, 56.274177, 52.626614, 50.934047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.0, "volume": 212521516, "typical_volume": 203379264.3, "trend": 48.914965, "fair_value": 51.856687, "relative_strength": -7.366805, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.367553, "energy": 49.631042, "activity_lines": [ 59.06, 56.630225, 53.064303, 51.360229 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.799999, "volume": 107148506, "typical_volume": 198716002.15, "trend": 49.505344, "fair_value": 51.703342, "relative_strength": -7.776438, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.882907, "energy": 40.015745, "activity_lines": [ 57.833333, 56.946722, 53.530907, 51.804424 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 60.0, "volume": 131918350, "typical_volume": 198384621.65, "trend": 50.151522, "fair_value": 51.570764, "relative_strength": -3.943674, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.970997, "energy": 36.81653, "activity_lines": [ 58.426666, 57.866929, 54.356334, 52.481499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }