{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec5d159f-fded-44f6-9c00-b245dbd9c8bc", "symbol": "002830", "name": "Shenzhen Mingdiao Decoration Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.482, "architecture_energy": 81.142, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.571, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.35, "rotation_up": 10.49, "upward_expansion": 19.9, "deceleration": 38.18, "rotation_down": 71.13, "downward_expansion": 90.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.790667, 13.928727, 16.382747, 17.966931 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.44, "trend_reference": 19.82422, "distance_from_trend": -0.322041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.514299, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.790163, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.421935, "excess_performance": -0.429335, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.322041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07027, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074017, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.732934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.317902, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350281, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.421935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367483, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15163140, "relative_activity": 0.821907, "balance": 0.367483, "dry_up": 1.390698, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179239, "annualized_volatility": 0.883326, "from_high_reference": -0.623951, "from_low_reference": 0.307393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.82422, "fair_value_reference": 14.514299, "structural_low": 10.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008619, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035567, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.231237, "worst_return": -0.302993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.116834, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.09481, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.400862, "worst_return": -0.171742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.192913, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.044558, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.387931, "worst_return": -0.085813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 17569670.85, "trend": 20.77022, "fair_value": 14.512638, "relative_strength": -23.162407, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.684668, "energy": 68.729589, "activity_lines": [ 16.354667, 17.305073, 19.029777, 20.029074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.69, "volume": 33994539, "typical_volume": 17520829.35, "trend": 20.569887, "fair_value": 14.515289, "relative_strength": -34.247483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.659309, "energy": 63.693629, "activity_lines": [ 15.169333, 16.208613, 18.313174, 19.507769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.41, "volume": 32376747, "typical_volume": 18103491.7, "trend": 20.296887, "fair_value": 14.5082, "relative_strength": -40.704743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.488041, "energy": 70.836164, "activity_lines": [ 13.828667, 15.07489, 17.528381, 18.916809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.16, "volume": 21091981, "typical_volume": 18304505.65, "trend": 20.02622, "fair_value": 14.507454, "relative_strength": -35.424262, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.256149, "energy": 80.417465, "activity_lines": [ 12.956, 14.286036, 16.869492, 18.391848 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.44, "volume": 15163140, "typical_volume": 18448722.65, "trend": 19.82422, "fair_value": 14.514299, "relative_strength": -31.790163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.481547, "energy": 81.141591, "activity_lines": [ 12.790667, 13.928727, 16.382747, 17.966931 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }