{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec636869-4dd5-4916-8c40-e5518e211ede", "symbol": "JAPAN", "name": "Franklin FTSE Japan UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.845, "architecture_energy": 35.36, "architecture_maturity": 62.964, "architecture_confidence": 91.658, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.11, "rotation_up": 37.9, "upward_expansion": 62.4, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.47, "downward_expansion": 21.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.322, 32.397581, 31.937943, 31.382486 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.013, "trend_reference": 30.716433, "distance_from_trend": 0.074767, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.052124, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.220348, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.203984, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137595, "excess_performance": 0.084283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05643, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.220348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037701, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06204, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137595, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.27139, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2148, "relative_activity": 2.484099, "balance": 2.27139, "dry_up": 2.324795, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026218, "annualized_volatility": 0.211205, "from_high_reference": -0.009659, "from_low_reference": 0.287458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.716433, "fair_value_reference": 27.052124, "structural_low": 27.820999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001069, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 24.271, "volume": 399, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 24.271, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, 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30.4299, "fair_value": 26.928494, "relative_strength": 8.261246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.999004, "energy": 44.027373, "activity_lines": [ 32.247933, 32.318908, 31.661923, 31.133841 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.847, "volume": 2161, "typical_volume": 759.2, "trend": 30.5761, "fair_value": 26.984386, "relative_strength": 5.19477, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.97357, "energy": 30.592048, "activity_lines": [ 32.066733, 32.259981, 31.750995, 31.225266 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.013, "volume": 2148, "typical_volume": 864.7, "trend": 30.716433, "fair_value": 27.052124, "relative_strength": 6.203984, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.845203, "energy": 35.360362, "activity_lines": [ 32.322, 32.397581, 31.937943, 31.382486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }