{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec6e6b3a-a8e8-4867-9349-be5ef6f7bff6", "symbol": "ASA", "name": "ASA Gold and Precious Metals Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.556, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.964, "architecture_energy": 43.581, "architecture_maturity": 23.443, "architecture_confidence": 89.642, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.06, "rotation_up": 20.25, "upward_expansion": 5.57, "deceleration": 52.8, "rotation_down": 58.11, "downward_expansion": 81.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.318, 52.883636, 56.472924, 59.060014 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 57.79, "trend_reference": 62.375214, "distance_from_trend": -0.07351, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.442957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.78128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.201973, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.124111, "excess_performance": -0.249735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.07351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002873, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.78128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.598224, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.318583, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.964751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 256142, "relative_activity": 0.682966, "balance": 0.964751, "dry_up": 0.764421, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114174, "annualized_volatility": 0.606421, "from_high_reference": -0.304973, "from_low_reference": 0.721022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.375214, "fair_value_reference": 32.442957, "structural_low": 47.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.017363, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004297, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.111285, "worst_return": -0.164004, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024615, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.052213, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.12119, "worst_return": -0.234824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.031191, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076799, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.201686, "worst_return": -0.266251, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.09, "volume": 329431, "typical_volume": 401344.2, "trend": 63.217069, "fair_value": 31.724283, "relative_strength": -19.5651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.113192, "energy": 75.520442, "activity_lines": [ 51.989333, 54.695273, 58.6592, 61.082963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.47, "volume": 305935, "typical_volume": 394188.1, "trend": 62.819039, "fair_value": 31.950046, "relative_strength": -15.422195, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.400437, "energy": 69.379779, "activity_lines": [ 50.97, 53.503818, 57.650222, 60.260571 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.93, "volume": 255256, "typical_volume": 386247.7, "trend": 62.509589, "fair_value": 32.16804, "relative_strength": -19.182618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.31283, "energy": 69.212067, "activity_lines": [ 50.02, 52.291818, 56.601123, 59.364504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.79, "volume": 256142, "typical_volume": 375043.55, "trend": 62.375214, "fair_value": 32.442957, "relative_strength": -8.201973, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.964443, "energy": 43.580992, "activity_lines": [ 52.318, 52.883636, 56.472924, 59.060014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }