{ "ticker": { "uuid": "ec7363f6-ed9e-4016-932c-164a74dfeaf4", "symbol": "002183", "name": "Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.361, "architecture_energy": 68.005, "architecture_maturity": 20.862, "architecture_confidence": 84.375, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.67, "rotation_up": 10.04, "upward_expansion": 15.03, "deceleration": 38.15, "rotation_down": 70.3, "downward_expansion": 88.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.547333, 4.808545, 5.371, 5.46972 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.63, "trend_reference": 5.517, "distance_from_trend": -0.160776, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.553322, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.01684, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.651092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235974, "excess_performance": -0.243373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160776, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.01684, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.491728, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146511, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250423, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235974, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.922578, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219619554, "relative_activity": 0.421938, "balance": 0.922578, "dry_up": 0.49717, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159495, "annualized_volatility": 0.689956, "from_high_reference": -0.416141, "from_low_reference": 0.091981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.517, "fair_value_reference": 4.553322, "structural_low": 4.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.004636, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006879, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.057203, "worst_return": -0.113793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015834, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.046947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186441, "worst_return": -0.130719, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.084958, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010014, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.30719, "worst_return": -0.187935, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.187298, 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"fair_value": 4.56735, "relative_strength": -14.97487, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.031125, "energy": 55.14426, "activity_lines": [ 4.91, 5.378909, 5.711429, 5.669398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.27, "volume": 276423916, "typical_volume": 545518307.8, "trend": 5.534333, "fair_value": 4.561221, "relative_strength": -18.903252, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.436364, "energy": 66.440201, "activity_lines": [ 4.626, 5.097091, 5.572286, 5.58686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.61, "volume": 246534824, "typical_volume": 540993744.25, "trend": 5.521333, "fair_value": 4.557335, "relative_strength": -10.830881, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.468975, "energy": 60.506944, "activity_lines": [ 4.548667, 4.929818, 5.469381, 5.527226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.63, "volume": 219619554, "typical_volume": 520502566.7, "trend": 5.517, "fair_value": 4.553322, "relative_strength": -14.651092, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.361276, "energy": 68.004844, "activity_lines": [ 4.547333, 4.808545, 5.371, 5.46972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }